Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 13
Thanks to one of the week's more surprising results, the Dallas Cowboys are on the path to an NFC East title.
Dallas upset New Orleans, 13-10, last Thursday to improve to 7-5 and increased its chances of making the playoffs up to 77.4%, per our model. This marked a 27.1% improvement from last week, the biggest increase of the weekend.
The Cowboys' chances of winning the division now stand at 68.1%, while they are currently -320 to do so over at the FanDuel Sportsbook, implying a 76.2% chance. They only lead the Eagles by one game, but have a head-to-head win and our model also sees them as the better team.
Dallas Cowboys (7-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +27.1%
Week 13 Result: Def. New Orleans, 13-10
Odds Before Week 13: 50.3%
Odds After Week 13: 77.4%
While Washington is theoretically still in the NFC East race, Washington is also quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez at the moment, meaning this will probably be a two-horse race between Dallas and Philadelphia; our models say there is a 90.7% either the Cowboys or Eagles finish in first.
Both teams are 3-1 in the division, but Dallas beat the Eagles in Philadelphia earlier this year, and also has an easier remaining schedule.
The Cowboys' remaining slate features just one game against a team with an above-average mark in our power rankings, a road contest at the No. 13 Colts. Their other games are at home against the No. 17 Eagles and No. 19 Buccaneers, and on the road versus the No. 23 Giants.
Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +25.5%
Week 13 Result: Def. Atlanta, 26-16
Odds Before Week 13: 37.7%
Odds After Week 13: 63.2%
Our model never really doubted Baltimore's quality, as the Ravens have been top 10 in our power rankings for almost the entirety of the season. It did begin to doubt their chances of making the playoffs after a three-game losing streak in the middle of the season, but they have answered that by winning three straight.
The division looks like Pittsburgh's to lose, as the Steelers have a 74.4% chance of winning the AFC North, but Baltimore looks like it has the inside track to grab the conference's final wild card berth. This is especially true after Week 13, as the Ravens picked up in a win against Atlanta in a game that was roughly a toss up, while the Colts were upset by the Jaguars.
This leaves Baltimore as the conference's lone 7-5 team, and it seems to have an edge on each team in the 6-6 bunch. The Ravens are eighth in our rankings and Denver is ninth, but Baltimore has a head-to-head win over the Broncos, essentially putting 1.5 games between the clubs.
The schedule is probably the only main factor keeping the Ravens' playoff odds lower, as they still have tough road games at the No. 3 Chargers and No. 7 Chiefs. Their other games are at home against Tampa Bay and No. 15 Cleveland.
Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +14.4%
Week 13 Result: Def. San Francisco, 43-16
Odds Before Week 13: 75.1%
Odds After Week 13: 89.5%
The Seahawks have been a frequent guest of the playoff odds report this year, as they have been one of the top three movers in either direction four times since the feature made its season debut in Week 9.
That week, Seattle saw its odds fall to 32.7% and they dipped to 30.6% the following week. Since then, the Seahawks' odds have been steadily climbing.
Part of this is obviously due to their own three-game winning streak, but attrition from the conference's other wild card contenders has also played a role. Green Bay and Atlanta have all but fallen out of the race, while the Panthers have lost four straight and have a head-to-head loss to Seattle.
Indianapolis Colts (6-6)
Playoff Odds Movement: -28.9%
Week 13 Result: Lost to Jacksonville, 6-0
Odds Before Week 13: 42.6%
Odds After Week 13: 13.7%
The Colts' surprising shutout loss to the Jaguars torpedoed their playoff chances, as their current margin of error is no almost nonexistent.
Their game on Sunday in Houston is virtually a must-win, as a loss would close the door on their chances of winning their division and would likely drop their odds of earning a wild card berth into the single digits.
Even if they do beat the Texans, though, the Colts would also have to win their following three games to avoid needing major help to get in. Indianapolis closes the season with home games against the Cowboys and Giants and a road game against the Titans.
Washington Redskins (6-6)
Playoff Odds Movement: -20.5%
Week 13 Result: Lost to Philadelphia, 28-13
Odds Before Week 13: 47.5%
Odds After Week 13: 27.0%
Even if Washington was not stuck with Sanchez, the team is in a rough spot.
It is looking up at both Dallas and Philadelphia in the standings, thanks to an inferior division record, and has two teams between itself and the conference's final wild card spot. This would have been a challenge for most teams, much less one with a quarterback who has completed less than 57% of his passes for his career.
Green Bay Packers (4-7-1)
Playoff Odds Movement: -8.8%
Week 13 Result: Lost to Arizona, 20-17
Odds Before Week 13: 10.3%
Odds After Week 13: 1.5%
The Packers' playoff odds were so low that they hardly had any room to drop. And yet they still saw the third biggest decline of the week.
It's been that kind of year in Green Bay.