FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 14 Thursday Night
Week 13 is in the books, and your first crack at redemption in Week 14 is on FanDuel's Thursday Night Football single-game slate. The salary cap remains at $60,000 and scoring is unchanged from the full roster game, but we don't have to worry about individual positions. Instead, your roster will consist of five offensive flex spots with kickers replacing team defense/special teams. One player will be designated as your "MVP," who is awarded 1.5x his total fantasy points. Making the correct choice for MVP is crucial for a top-scoring lineup but we also can't ignore the value plays that let you squeeze in your favorites.
Tonight, we journey into in the AFC South for a divisional matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Both are coming off wins but are on the outside of the playoff race. The Titans are a 4.0-point home favorite in this one, but we have just a 37.5 point over/under, the lowest this week.
To score well in your contests, making the right choice for your MVP slot is crucial. Let's get to it!
Leonard Fournette ($17,000 on FanDuel): Fournette was ejected from the Jags' Week 12 matchup with the Bills for throwing a punch. After serving a one-game suspension, Fournette should dominate the backfield once again. He's eclipsed 21 FanDuel points in each of his last three games while seeing 30, 29, and 21 touches with 5 total touchdowns. Despite having the lowest implied team total this week at 16.75 points, it's usage that keeps Fournette in consideration for the MVP slot. The matchup is also on his side as the Titans field the 22nd-ranked rushing defense, per our models. Over their last three games -- which have come against the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, and Houston Texans -- the Titans have surrendered 451 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Fournette's projection of 15.6 FanDuel points is the most for any player in this game and the seventh-highest among all running backs this week.
Marcus Mariota ($16,000): The entire Titans' offense has been a hard one to predict this season. With a new coaching staff and first-year offensive coordinator, perhaps that was to be expected. Mariota has yet to take the step forward many of us were expecting under coordinator Matt LaFleur, but after a rocky and injury-plagued first half of the year, things are looking up. He's averaged 22.5 FanDuel points in the last four games he's completed. Overall, it's not a great spot for the Titans' offense as the Jags are eighth in total defense and fourth against the pass. We also have volume concerns as the Titans have attempted only attempted 338 passes all season, the second-fewest in the league. These two teams played back in Week 3, and Mariota passed for just 100 yards while adding 51 on the ground. He failed to reach 10 FanDuel points in that one, but our projections are more optimistic this week, pegging him to score 15.5 points, which trails only Fournette in this matchup.
Corey Davis ($14,000): Back in Week 4 against the Eagles, it looked like Davis finally had his breakout game, scoring 26.6 FanDuel points, and was going to be a reliable, high-volume option going forward. Well, he's still getting volume, with healthy target share of nearly 27 percent, but he hasn't had many big weeks. Tennessee's offense has sputered for most of the year, largely due to Mariota's injury woes, but the attack appears to be coming around. As such, Davis has topped 21 FanDuel points in two of his last four outings. Unlikely to be a popular MVP choice because of the tough matchup against Jacksonville, Davis is a contrarian MVP play who could be a big difference maker if he hits.
Dion Lewis ($11,000): Lewis had his highest snap share back in Week 9 against the Cowboys, at 84 percent. It dropped three consecutive weeks, falling all the way down to 53 percent in Week 12 before rebounding slightly last week to 59 percent. That drop in snap rate coincides with Derrick Henry's ($12,000) increased role. This week, however, if the Titans are going to have success moving the ball, it will likely be through the air, and that's where Lewis can contribute. His targets have fallen off of late, but against another strong run defense in Houston two weeks ago, Lewis saw seven targets. On the Titans, Lewis trails only Davis in overall targets (51) and target share (15 percent) on the season.
Jonnu Smith ($9,000): Tight end has been a difficult position to fill in DFS and season-long lineups this year. Smith looked prime to step into the target void vacated by the injured Delanie Walker, but that has yet to come to fruition. Smith's three touchdowns have boosted his scoring above 10 FanDuel points in games in which he found the paint. They've also covered up Smith's miniscule role in the offense as he's topped three targets in a game just once, and that was mostly with Blaine Gabbert filling in for an injured Mariota against the Colts. If the Jaguars have a soft spot in their pass defense, it's covering tight ends. They rank just 30th against number-one tight ends, per our numbers, giving Smith -- who played 71% of the snaps last week -- what may be the best matchup of the night. His floor is really low, but given our limited options in this game, he's worth the risk at his salary.
Donte Moncrief ($7,000): Outside of Fournette, it's hard to trust anyone on the Jaguars' offense. Moncrief signed a one-year deal in free agency and is doing his best to earn his keep. He's tied for the team lead in target share with Dede Westbrook ($8,000) at 17 percent and is $1,000 cheaper than Dede. More importantly, Moncrief easily holds the edge in air yards, with a 31 percent market share, and has the second-most targets from Kessler.
Ryan Bobbitt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Bobbitt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Drummerinabox. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.