3 NFL Prop Bets to Target in Week 13
With the playoffs approaching in seasonal fantasy leagues, many teams may have already been eliminated from the playoff picture. However, new this year, the FanDuel Sportsbook offers a variety of potential outcomes for people to wager on, including games and player prop bets. So you can get your fix that way.
Here are a few prop bets to target this week, using our projections as a guide.
Todd Gurley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards -108
From a game environment standpoint, this matchup couldn't be friendlier for Gurley. The Rams enter this contest favored by 10.0 points, putting game script squarely in Gurley's favor. Also, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Lions rank 25th in rush defense, and they have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards so far this season (1,196).
Gurley has averaged just over 19 carries this season, and the nature of this contest sets up for him to possibly eclipse that mark. Our projections currently have Gurley pegged for a conservative 17.56 rushing attempts and 93.95 rushing yards. This creates almost 10 yards worth of value on the line, making the over on Gurley's player prop bet very attractive this weekend.
Lamar Jackson Over 200 Passing Yards/Baltimore Win +290
Looking at player-prop parlays provide sneaky value if two solid wagers are paired together. We get exactly that in this situation, with a $100 bet on Lamar Jackson eclipsing 200 passing yards and the Baltimore Ravens winning outright netting $290.
Starting with the Ravens' side of the spread, bookmakers currently label Baltimore as 1.5-point underdogs. This game actually opened with the Ravens favored by 2.0 points, and our models predict an outright Baltimore win, 24.39-23.87. The Atlanta Falcons have struggled mightily in recent weeks, dropping each of their last three games. This Ravens team matches up nicely across the board, with the Falcons ranking 29th in rush defense and dead-last against the pass, per our metrics.
As for Jackson, a matchup against the league's worst secondary, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics, sets up perfectly for him to best 200 passing yards for the first time in his career. After attempting 19 passes in his first start, Jackson's attempts increased to 25 last week despite playing the bottom-feeding Oakland Raiders. Our projections currently have Jackson pegged for 176.18 passing yards on 23.14 attempts, numbers that could easily rise with the Falcons' eighth-ranked offense expected to score some points at home.
Overall, lines have yet to adjust to Jackson's true upside as an NFL signal caller, making now the time to buy in before lines adjust in future weeks.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -108
A $100 bet on JuJu Smith-Schuster besting 74.5 receiving yards this weekend nets $92.59.
Often considered a complementary asset to Antonio Brown, Smith-Schuster quietly ranks seventh in targets (110) and fifth in receiving yards (1,011). While the Los Angeles Chargers play stout pass defense, sitting ninth in our metrics, the projected volume and the projected yardage simply don't match up for JuJu.
Our projections currently slate Smith-Schuster for 86.84 receiving yards, more than 10 yards over his receiving prop. Despite winning two out of their last three games, Pittsburgh has morphed into one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league, throwing the ball 71% of the time in that span (third-most). With a 27.75-point implied team total, bookmakers expect Pittsburgh to move the ball here.
With JuJu receiving more targets than most number-one receiving options, his player prop should be targeted until it ultimately increases.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.