4 FanDuel Stacks for Week 13
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers sitting at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- while his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- especially if that also comes with low ownership percentages. Who fits that mold in Week 13?
Of the three games with an over/under above 54.0 on this week's main slate, the duel between the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers has the best chance of turning into a shootout, with the Panthers only favored by 3.5 points, making this game an ideal target for stacking.
When discussing stacks in daily fantasy football, that typically entails pairing a quarterback with a wide receiver, but we can make an exception in the case of Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. After all, McCaffrey's 23.6% target market share leads the Panthers, so in essence he's Newton's top pass-catcher, making this little different than treating McCaffrey like a top wideout.
Of course, unlike wide receivers, in addition to McCaffrey's 7.5 targets per game, he adds 13.9 rushes as well, resulting in a hefty 37.0% market share of the team's targets and carries, the fourth-highest on the board. The upside of that volume has been in full effect of late, with McCaffrey putting up 30-plus FanDuel points in three of the last four games.
Meanwhile, you probably don't need much convincing to use Newton, who has averaged 23.5 FanDuel points per game and dropped below 18 points only once all season. As always, his rushing ability (37.9 yards per game) gives him both a high floor and ceiling, and he's thrown multiple touchdowns in 10 straight games.
Between two stellar talents and a matchup against numberFire's 29th-ranked overall defense in Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, Newton and McCaffrey make for a compelling duo to deploy in lineups this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
On the other side of that same matchup, Jameis Winston figures to be a fairly popular choice at quarterback, particularly with his price unchanged since last week. Over his three full-game starts this season, Winston has averaged 357.3 passing yards per game and hasn't dipped below 22 FanDuel points, as Tampa Bay continues to boast a lucrative passing game, regardless of who's in at quarterback.
There's always the outside shot of another benching should Winston falter, but after flipping back to him as the starter just last week, he figures to have a reasonable leash. Plus, Winston is playing at home, and Carolina isn't exactly an intimidating matchup themselves, ranking just 28th against the pass by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.
However, finding a suitable pairing for Winston hasn't always been straightforward, with so many mouths to feed on this offense. Mike Evans ($7,900) remains the conventional choice, but he's expensive for a player with just a 22.2% target market share, and while it's a limited sample size, that mark drops to just 18.5% in those three full-game starts for Winston.
But DeSean Jackson has already been ruled out this week, opening up more opportunities for Chris Godwin to thrive. Godwin has been rotating snaps with Jackson all season, so he should see a sizable boost from the 57.3% snap rate he's seen this year in a potential full-time role. Considering Godwin's modest 13.7% target market share and 5.5 targets per game, there's some risk here, but some portion of Jackson's 6.5 targets per game should go his way, making him a nice value at this low price point. Also, Godwin isn't exactly some random slouch as a talent, either.
With the Jackson injury news coming out so early, the Winston and Godwin connection could see high ownership, but with the inherent salary savings, you'll have plenty of options to differentiate yourself elsewhere.
Along similar lines, Sammy Watkins has likewise been ruled out against the Oakland Raiders, putting Chris Conley ($4,500) in play at the bare minimum. Kansas City has a massive slate-high 35.25 implied total, and Conley grants us a punt stacking partner for the expensive but always exciting Patrick Mahomes ($9,500). Conley still has a shaky floor, but with Watkins only playing five snaps in Week 11's shootout against the Los Angeles Rams, Conley caught 7-of-8 targets for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns (22.9 FanDuel points).
Los Angeles Rams
To no one's surprise, the Rams have a 32.25 implied total versus the Detroit Lions, numberFire's worst overall defense this season and 31st-worst against the pass.
Naturally, all the usual suspects are in play for the Rams, and stacking Jared Goff with either Brandin Cooks ($7,800) or Robert Woods ($7,300) makes a ton of sense, as both players have seen over 24% of the targets in the three games without Cooper Kupp this season. In terms of upside, you can't really go wrong with either one, but it's worth noting that Woods plays a majority of his snaps out of the slot with Kupp out, so he should avoid the coverage of cornerback Darius Slay and have an easier path to success.
But if Slay is tasked with dealing with Cooks a majority of the game, that figures to leave Josh Reynolds out of his coverage as well. In terms of playing time, Reynolds has been by far the biggest beneficiary in Kupp's absence, playing over 80% of the snaps in those three games, including a season-high 97.5% in their last game against the Chiefs.
Reynolds has logged target totals of one, five and eight in those three contests, suggesting the floor is still low, but those numbers have trended in the right direction, and he saw a respectable 17.4% target market share in that most recent game. When he hits, the fantasy box score results have been kind, with Reynolds scoring 17 or more FanDuel points in two of those three outings.
Stefon Diggs ($7,300) has been on fire lately, but he's officially questionable for this weekend, and while he's expected to play, he doesn't exactly have a pristine track record when playing injured and could also draw shadow coverage from cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Therefore, it's not a bad week to opt for Thielen, who curiously has his lowest salary since Week 2. Thielen has arguably been the most consistent fantasy wideout all year, scoring in double-digit FanDuel points in every game, with at least 100 yards or a touchdown in all but one of them. Few can beat his 11.3 targets per game and 28.6% target market share, and he's numberFire's highest-projected wideout this week.
The Minnesota Vikings figure to be throwing early and often as 5.0-point underdogs to the New England Patriots, in a game that could have sneaky shootout potential with a 49.5-point over/under, the fourth-highest on the slate.
Thielen's volume, price and matchup should draw some ownership, but the same won't be the case for his quarterback. While quarterback ownership tends to be spread out to begin with, Kirk Cousins is priced in the same range as Winston and Lamar Jackson ($7,500), and high-priced guys like Mahomes, Newton, and Goff are in the aforementioned plus matchups. There's a good chance Cousins could slip through the cracks this week.
New England ranks just 18th against the pass by numberFire' metrics, and they've struggled to generate much of a pass rush, ranking a dismal 30th in sacks (17) and 18th in quarterback hits. While Cousins hasn't had the most consistent week to week output, he's shown a fantastic ceiling with three games over 27 FanDuel points, including his most recent performance against the Green Bay Packers, in which he threw for 342 yards with 3 touchdowns (27.38 points).
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.