4 FanDuel Stacks for Week 12
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers sitting at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- while his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- especially if that also comes with low ownership percentages. Who fits that mold in Week 12?
This duo isn't exactly flying under the radar after combining for 55.88 FanDuel points in Week 11, but they have a fantastic opportunity for another explosive performance, as the Indianapolis Colts are displaying the main slate's highest implied total (29.25) over the hapless Miami Dolphins.
At home against the Tennessee Titans, T.Y. Hilton blew up for his biggest outing of the season, catching all 9 of his targets for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns, earning a spot on last week's perfect lineup. While recency bias and the high implied total will likely translate to higher ownership, the big game is a sign that Hilton is finally fully healthy after dealing with multiple nagging injuries for much of the year, and a reminder of his immense upside when playing at Lucas Oil Stadium. He's seen a 26.7% target market share in the two games since the bye week, so his volume is starting to creep back up as well.
Although the Dolphins will likely shadow Hilton with Xavien Howard, this isn't necessarily an imposing overall matchup, as this secondary ranks just 27th against the pass by numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.
Meanwhile, as you've likely heard, Luck has thrown at least three scores in a whopping seven straight games, scoring over 22 FanDuel points in all of them. On a slate with fewer high totals than we've seen in most weeks, don't be afraid to go back to the well and differentiate your lineup in other spots.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As noted in this week's Daily Fantasy Football Helper, whoever is quarterbacking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has shown immense upside this season, as Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick have combined to average 374.6 passing yards per game with 25 touchdowns. Coupled with the Bucs' terrible defense, Winston and Fitzpatrick have routinely found themselves in shootouts, and this week should be no exception, with the Bucs and 49ers drawing a slate-high 53.5 over/under.
Following a disastrous performance last week by Fitzpatrick, it will be Winston in the driver's seat against San Francisco's 23rd-ranked passing defense by numberFire's metrics, and at a reasonable price-point, he has as much upside as any quarterback in what should be a back-and-forth affair. With Cameron Brate costing just $4,400 and O.J. Howard placed on injured reserve, Brate will be an extremely popular stacking partner with Winston, and Mike Evans ($7,900) figures to get some attention as well.
But if you wish to pivot off of the chalky Brate, you can also consider DeSean Jackson, who's at his lowest salary since Week 1. Jackson is second on the team with a 15.2% target market share, which may not be anything exciting, but he also ranks top 10 overall in air yards, speaking to his big-play ability.
Howard's absence frees up just under five targets per game in the passing game, and Jackson is also coming off his highest snap rate of the season (74.6%) with Chris Godwin playing through a questionable tag last week. While there's no guarantee this means more targets for Jackson, and Godwn is practicing in full this week, these are still encouraging signs for Jackson's output moving forward.
Jackson hasn't experienced as much success with Winston at quarterback compared to Fitzpatrick, which adds risk to a guy who's already boom-or-bust by nature, but he's still intriguing as an affordable lower-owned option in a potential shootout.
San Francisco 49ers
On the other side of the Tampa game, we have Nick Mullens as a clear value at quarterback to take advantage of the Bucs' atrocious passing defense. Not only is Tampa Bay numberFire's 30th-ranked passing defense, but they've allowed the league's highest completion percentage (74.7%) and are tied for the most touchdowns allowed (25). At such a low price tag, even the inexperienced Mullens should be able to get the job done in this spot, and is numberFire's top projected value on the board.
But who should you pair him with? The safe choice is George Kittle, who's beginning to get pricey, but is one of a handful of tight ends we can actually trust these days. Kittle leads the 49ers with a solid 22.8% target market share, and incredibly trails only Saquon Barkley in yards after the catch this season. Tampa Bay's defensive struggles have spilled over to the tight end position as well, allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game. Between Zach Ertz hovering around the same price, and Brate being such a clear punt value, perhaps that keeps Kittle's ownership somewhat in check.
Alternatively, if you're not afraid of a low floor, you can go the bargain route and stack Marquise Goodwin with Mullens. Similar to DeSean Jackson, Goodwin is a high-variance deep threat who has seen plenty of duds this season, but he also possesses tournament-winning upside, as shown from his 27.1-point FanDuel score in Week 6. Now healthy, across the last five games he's led the team with a 35.5% air yards market share and ranks second with a 17.0% target market share.
Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz were the highest-owned players at their respective positions last week against the New Orleans Saints, and they rewarded those lineups with a combined... 6.34 FanDuel points. Ouch.
But this could be a case where we use recency bias to our advantage, with the the hope that both players are lower-owned in Week 12, despite showing an appealing 26.25 implied total against the New York Giants.
Prior to last week's debacle, Wentz had thrown for multiple scores in six straight games, resulting in at least 18 FanDuel points in each one. Ertz had also shown similar consistency, with double-digit FanDuel points in every game over that stretch, including a ridiculous 33.5-point FanDuel score in Week 10. For the year, Ertz's 27.3% target market share is easily the best among tight ends on the slate.
The Giants check in as just the 25th-ranked passing defense by numberFire's marks, and with the Eagles favored by 5.5 points at home, this is an ideal bounce-back spot. Even better, with the Eagles' decimated secondary surrendering the second-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts, you can opt for a full game stack and run it back with Odell Beckham ($8,500) or Sterling Shepard ($6,000).
Kenyatta Storin is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Kenyatta Storin also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username yatters. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.