DRAFT Daily Fantasy Helper: Week 12
Following an exciting Thanksgiving slate of football, Week 12 projects to finish as a relatively low-scoring week. Currently, bookmakers have only projected two games on Sunday to eclipse 50 points. However, DRAFT provides a way for people to pick and choose the best fantasy options in these matchups. Players can participate in a variety of snake or auction drafts at numerous price points. Here are this week's notable plays on DRAFT.
Lamar Jackson - Filling in for Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson finished Week 11 positively with 150 passing yards and another 117 on the ground. With Flacco slated to miss another game, Jackson finds himself in a plus matchup against the tanking Baltimore Ravens. Often going undrafted in weekly snake drafts, Lamar's upside as a rusher and a passer warrants consideration in the last round of drafts.
According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Oakland Raiders rank 29th in pass defense. Although Jackson attempted a mere 19 passes last week, Oakland's ineptitude may provide an avenue for aerial success. Additionally, Oakland has allowed the second-most rushing yards in the league. Last week, Jackson rushed 27 times on the way to a Ravens' victory. With this recipe for the success, the Ravens should implement a similar game plan in Week 12.
Additionally, the Ravens come into this game favored by 11.0 points providing a solid correlation for Jackson's rushing. Implied for 27.25 points, Baltimore has the sixth-most projected points this week.
With people skipping over Jackson in weekly drafts, he provides the requisite upside to take down a first place prize this weekend.
Baker Mayfield - In his last two games with Freddie Kitchens at offensive coordinator, Baker Mayfield has finished with 513 passing yards and a 5-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Often falling to the final rounds of drafts, Baker allows drafters to gain leverage at running back and receiver in weekly drafts.
Mayfield will face the collapsing Cincinnati Bengals defense, which has allowed the second-most passing yards to date (3,061), along with 21 passing touchdowns. Sweetening the matchup, Cincinnati also projects to miss Dre Kirkpatrick, who did not practice to start the week.
With the Cleveland Browns labeled as 3.0-point underdogs by bookmakers with a 46.5-point over/under, Mayfield should find himself in a positive passing environment. The Bengals are averaging 38.5 points allowed over their last four games. Falling to the late rounds of drafts, Mayfield provides a solid anchor to lineups bolstered by running backs and receivers.
Melvin Gordon - With Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt on bye, a debate has opened for the number one overall pick in weekly drafts. With secure volume and arguably the best matchup on the slate against Arizona, Melvin Gordon looks like a lock to finish among the top five running backs.
The path to Gordon's success begins with his matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the second-most rushing yards (1,286) and another 419 through the air. Averaging 21.3 touches per game, Gordon has at least 100 yards in each of his last six games. He also ranks second on the Chargers with 58 targets, showing a reliable role in the pass game.
The Chargers come into this contest favored by 13.0 points and implied for 28.25 points (fourth-highest on the slate). This should create the optimal game scenario for Gordon to pound the rock. While he comes off the board in the top three picks of weekly snakes, Gordon should be considered with the top overall pick in drafts.
Marlon Mack - With Gurley and Hunt off the slate, running back also appears relatively light this week, pushing multiple back up the board. However, Marlon Mack still looks like a value in the second/third round.
Since returning from injury, Mack has averaged 18.4 touches per game, along with 13 targets in that span. Mack also has the benefit of taking this volume to Miami, who has allowed the third-most rushing yards this season (1,228), along with 511 receiving yards. According to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, the Dolphins rank 27th in rushing defense.
The Colts come into this matchup favored by 7.5 points and implied for 29.25 points (second-highest on the slate). With game script favoring the run, Mack should have a field day against a weak Miami defense and he makes an ideal second running back in the mid-rounds of drafts.
Dalvin Cook - In two games since returning from injury, Dalvin Cook has 26 touches for 123 yards. Despite the disappointing performances, Cook looks like a value this week, falling to the late rounds.
However, Cook showed positive signs coming into Week 12. Last week, he played a career-high 59 snaps (88%) of the Minnesota Vikings' snaps, and ran a route on and 67% of the Vikings' drop backs. Additionally, he handled 71% of the running back touches.
Cook draws the Green Bay Packers, who have played middling defense to this point. They have allowed the 10th-most rushing yards to backs (1,019) and rank 26th in run defense according to our metrics.
Favored by 3.5 points, this game projects to see a lot of Cook rush attempts. Often going in the final round of drafts, Cook's volume locks him in as a late round target.
Odell Beckham - Typically lasting to the late-first/early-second round, Odell Beckham looks like a strong value for those taking a receiver-centric approach.
Beckham also enters one of the better matchups of the week against a battered Philadelphia Eagles secondary. The Eagles are in danger of missing Sidney Jones, Avonte Maddox, Rasul Douglas, and Jalen Mills, with Ronald Darby and Rodney McLeod already on injured reserve. To date, this unit has allowed the second-most yards to receivers (2,034).
With the Eagles down to their third string in some spots, Beckham should have a field day against this weak secondary that allowed the New Orleans Saints to score 48 points. He makes for a strong number-one wide receiver option early in drafts.
On the year, Diggs ranks sixth in targets (103), with an additional 880 air yards. Diggs has eclipsed 10 targets in all but two games this season, including a whopping 18 targets last week.
Diggs faces a middling Packers defense that ranks 18th in pass defense per our metrics. Over the last four weeks, the Packers have allowed the sixth-most yards to receivers (765).
Often falling to the middle rounds of drafts, Diggs offers reliability for those targeting running back early.
In the New England Patriots' offense, Gordon and Julian Edelman are tied for a team-leading 22 targets over the last two games. However, Gordon has absolutely dwarfed Edelman in air yards (364-142) and average depth of target (16.5-6.5).
Gordon faces a sub-par pass defense in the New York Jets, ranking 19th in our pass defense metrics. This unit has also allowed the sixth-most yards to receivers this season (1,859), boding well for Gordon.
Usually coming off the board in the last round, Gordon provides enough upside to take down a week-to-week tournament this week.
Matthew Gajewski is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matthew Gajewski also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mgajewski. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.