Biggest NFL Playoff Odds Movers: Week 11
The NFC wild card picture is a crowded one and thanks to a win last Thursday, the Seattle Seahawks thrust themselves into this mix.
Seattle edged the Packers 27-24 to improve to 5-5, and the win, coupled with losses from other contenders, improved the Seahawks’ playoff odds by 19.4%, This was the biggest increase of the week, as they now have a 50-50 shot at making the postseason, per our models.
Tennessee is on the other side of things, as the Titans followed up a big win over the New England in Week 10 with a dud in Indianapolis on Sunday. Their odds fell by over 25%, by far the biggest decrease of Week 12.
Seattle Seahawks (5-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +19.4%
Week 11 Result: Def. Green Bay, 27-24
Odds Before Week 11: 30.6%
Odds After Week 11: 50.0%
If the season ended today, the Seahawks would still miss the playoffs, with Minnesota (5-4-1) grabbing the final wild card spot. The Vikings, though, have three games left against top-12 teams in our power rankings, and another against No. 13 Green Bay.
Seattle has two such games, including a pivotal game against Minnesota itself in Week 14.
Indianapolis Colts (5-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +15.4%
Week 11 Result: Def. Tennessee, 38-10
Odds Before Week 11: 19.7%
Odds After Week 11: 36.1%
The Colts are among the hottest teams in the league and they continued to roll with a tremendously important win against their division rivals from Tennessee.
Indianapolis still has its work cut out for it, though, as the tiebreakers currently do not favor them. The Colts are ninth in the AFC playoff picture, as they are 4-4 against the AFC, while Baltimore is 5-3 and Miami is 4-3. Cincinnati is also 4-4 against the conference, but has a head-to-head win over Indianapolis.
The Colts do have the benefit of a favorable remaining schedule, as their rematch against Houston is their only game against a team with an above-average nERD rating. They play three games against teams in the bottom eight and just two against teams in the top 20.
Their home game against Miami this Sunday will be critical.
Dallas Cowboys (5-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: +14.4%
Week 11 Result: Def. Atlanta, 22-19
Odds Before Week 11: 17.1%
Odds After Week 11: 31.5%
Dallas’ most likely path into playoffs is as the NFC East winner and Sunday’s results certainly made this more likely.
The Cowboys won, while Washington and Philadelphia both lost, bringing their division odds up to 25.6% (compared to 5.9% wild card odds).
Washington is still on top of the division and has a head-to-head win over Dallas, meaning the Thanksgiving contest between the two teams will be incredibly important.
Tennessee Titans (5-5)
Playoff Odds Movement: -25.2%
Week 11 Result: Lost to Indianapolis, 38-10
Odds Before Week 11: 41.9%
Odds After Week 11: 16.7%
One week after seeing the biggest increase in playoff odds, the Titans experienced the biggest loss, bringing them to about where they were two weeks ago.
Tennessee lost to a division foe and fellow wild card contender, while the defeat also brought their conference record down to 3-5. This is the worst mark of the 5-5 teams in the AFC, meaning they are just 10th in the conference’s playoff picture.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)
Playoff Odds Movement: -13.1%
Week 11 Result: Lost to New Orleans, 48-7
Odds Before Week 11: 28.5%
Odds After Week 11: 15.4%
The Eagles’ title defense took another hit, as it now seems unlikely Philadelphia will be back in the playoffs, let alone repeat as champions.
Their playoff odds have fallen by more than 50% in just two weeks, as in addition to the poor overall record, they are just 2-5 against the NFC. Philadelphia is now in third in the NFC East, trailing Washington by two games and Dallas by one (and also have a head-to-head loss to the Cowboys).
Carolina Panthers (6-4)
Playoff Odds Movement: -11.4%
Week 11 Result: Lost to Detroit, 20-19
Odds Before Week 11: 59.5%
Odds After Week 11: 48.1%
The Panthers are back in this space for a second straight week, but remain in decent shape thanks to their strong start to the season.
Carolina was upset by the Lions in Week 11, but would still be the No. 5 seed in the NFC if the season ended today. The Panthers have this in their favor, but have to deal with a schedule that includes two games against New Orleans (No. 1 in our power rankings) and a meeting with No. 11 Seattle.