DRAFT Daily Fantasy Helper: Week 11
With an absolutely sensational start to the NFL season, Week 11 projects to follow suit. This week's action features a showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. This game comes in with a 63.5-point total, the highest of any game since 2000.
With this game off the main slate for most DFS sites, DRAFT provides a great way for people to include this game through weekly snake and auction leagues. Here are this week's notable plays on DRAFT.
Deshaun Watson - Employing a late-round quarterback strategy has been viable in weekly snake drafts throughout the season, and Deshaun Watson has us considering it again.
Coming off the bye, Watson not only received extra time to heal, but slot receiver Keke Coutee projects to rejoin the lineup. Even with the injury, Watson has shown the ability to provide spike weeks, with six games over 20 points and four games with at least 300 yards passing.
This week, Watson and the Houston Texans take on a struggling Washington Redskins defense, possibly providing an avenue for one of these blow-up weeks. Washington has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL over the past four weeks (1,345), including at least 315 yards to each of their last three opponents.
Adding another 268 yards with his legs (fourth in the NFL), Watson provides the ultimate floor-ceiling combo to look for in a fantasy quarterback. Going at the very end of drafts, Watson should anchor fantasy lineups.
Goff currently ranks second in the NFL with 3,134 passing yards, behind only Mahomes. He also has a stellar 22:6 touchdown to interception ratio, while playing on the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL.
The third-year pro faces a weak Kansas City Chiefs defense, which has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL (3,107). As noted above, with a 63.5-point spread, the Rams come in with a massive 33.5 implied team total. The combination of a weak opponent and the greatest scoring environment in recent history make Goff a lock in the early-to-middle rounds of drafts.
David Johnson - Aside from Todd Gurley, David Johnson might present the best play on the slate. Drafted near the end of the first round in weekly snake drafts, the public has yet to adjust to Johnson's new (old?) role with Byron Leftwich as offensive coordinator.
In two games with Leftwich, Johnson has 37 carries and 13 targets, accounting for at least 87% of the backfield touches. Johnson turned this volume into two consecutive 100-yard games and added a pair of scores.
This week the Arizona Cardinals draw the hapless Oakland Raiders. After trading or releasing a sizable portion of the roster, Oakland has allowed the second-most rushing yards to enemy backs this season (1,156). They've also allowed another 371 through the air, which Johnson can exploit with his pass-catching skill set. According to our schedule-adjusted metrics, Oakland ranks 28th in run defense.
Also working in Johnson's favor, the Cardinals actually enter this contest favored by five points at home. This creates the optimal game script to pound the rock and hold the lead over the Raiders. With people yet to adjust to Johnson's new role under Leftwich, his late first/early second round draft position should be hammered hard this week.
Dion Lewis - A quick glance at the Tennessee Titans' box score would indicate a time share between Dion Lewis and Derrick Henry. In Week 10, Lewis narrowly out-gained Henry 68-58, but Henry scored the only two touchdowns between the backs. Despite the similar production, Lewis remains the back to own and he can be drafted in the late second or early third round.
For the second straight game Lewis played at least 75% of the Titans' snaps, while Henry fought for scraps at 25%. Lewis has also out-carried Henry 39-17, with six targets to Henry's two in that span. Surprisingly, Lewis has even out-touched Henry in the red zone 12-7 since the Titans' bye.
Lewis draws a matchup against the Colts, and Indianapolis has played decent run defense, ranking 18th in our metrics. However, they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to backs (571). With 39 targets to date, Lewis remains more than capable of exploiting this deficiency in the Colts' defense.
The Titans come into this game as two-point underdogs on the road. This actually bodes well for Lewis' prospects in the passing game, where he can use his passing game specialties if the Titans trail. With a 49-point over/under, bookmakers expect some points to be scored in this one.
Falling to the mid-rounds with many of the other timeshare backs, Dion Lewis presents a supreme value for a volume standpoint. He provides the perfect RB2 to add after others have reached at the position.
Leonard Fournette - Finally returning to full game action after suffering a hamstring injury in Week 1, Leonard Fournette immediately reclaimed his position as the Jacksonville Jaguars lead back. However, flying under the radar, Fournette remains a third-to-fourth round pick in weekly drafts.
In his return, Fournette showed no limitations, handling a massive 24 carries and 5 targets. He parlayed this volume into 109 yards and a pair of scores, including a massive 56 yards receiving.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers on deck, Fournette will certainly have his work cut out for him. The Steelers have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards (595) and the second-fewest receiving yards to backs (247). However, Fournette's volumes remains impossible to fade, with the Jaguars firmly committed to the run. Despite trailing for a majority of the game last week against the Colts, the Jags ran the ball on 47% of their plays (eighth-most last week).
The Jags come into this one asfive-point underdogs, but Jacksonville's reliance on the run remains independent of game script. However, with five targets last week, Fournette showed the capability to catch the ball out of backfield in the event the Jags get completely slaughtered in this one.
Either way, with an easy 20-touch projection, Fournette should be drafted higher than his current average draft position.
Hopkins currently ranks ninth in targets (91), third in receiving yards (911), and third in air yards (1,169). Without Will Fuller in the lineup in Week 9, Hopkins recorded a massive 50% of Houston's targets and air yards. While these numbers will likely fall, it speaks to Hopkins' massive role in the Texans' offense without Fuller.
Hopkins also faces the reeling Redskins, who have struggled mightily against receivers recently. On the year, they have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts (1,752), including the most over the last four weeks (940).
Bookmakers currently project these teams to score a mere 42 combined points combined. However, Hopkins' projected volume and weak opponent make him a near must draft in the mid-second round.
Adam Thielen - Also coming off a Week 10 bye, drafters appear to have forgotten Adam Thielen, often allowing him to reach the third round of snake drafts. Despite the Week 10 bye, Thielen still ranks first in targets (103), second in receiving yards (944), and second in receptions (76).
Thielen draws a matchup against the ferocious Chicago Bears defense, but there remains room for optimism. First, the Bears present a natural pass funnel, ranking 2nd against the run but 13th against the pass, per our metrics. The Bears have also only faced one opponent with a winning record this season (New England Patriots), and that ended in a loss. The Vikings are not a slouch of an opponent, ranking 10th in our power rankings, which gives Thielen and the Vikings hope.
As 2.5-point underdogs and the league's second-worst rushing offense, per our metrics, the Vikings should be throwing early and often. Arguably the league's best receiver, Adam Thielen looks like a steal in the third round of weekly snake drafts.
Amari Cooper - Since shifting over to Dallas from Oakland, Amari Cooper has seen a stark uptick in volume. However, falling to the final round of drafts, the public has yet to adjust to Cooper's newfound success.
Prior to the trade deadline, Cooper had a mere 14% targets share in Oakland, but that number has risen all the way to 26% in Dallas. Dallas also began to use cooper in creative ways, including down the field where he saw 197 air yards (ninth in the NFL) over the past two weeks. To top it all off, the Cowboys showed a commitment to Amari in the red zone, feeding him six targets in his brief time in Dallas.
Cooper now takes this volume to a struggling Atlanta Falcons secondary. Atlanta will once again be without Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen, after they allowed the seventh-most yards to receivers (1,708) to date. According to our metrics, Atlanta fields the second-worst pass defense in all of football, which both Dak Prescott and Cooper should take advantage of.
After trading a future first round pick to acquire him, the Cowboys should continue to feed Cooper throughout the season. Now looks like the time to buy, with people still sour from his disappointing days in Oakland.