FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Week 11 Thursday Night
Week 10 is in the books and your first crack at redemption in Week 11 is on FanDuel's Thursday Night Football single-game slate. The salary cap remains at $60,000 and scoring is unchanged from the full roster game, but we don't have to worry about individual positions. Instead, your roster will consist of five offensive flex spots with kickers replacing team defense/special teams. One player will be designated as your "MVP," who is awarded 1.5x his total fantasy points. Making the correct choice for MVP is crucial for a top-scoring lineup but we also can't ignore the value plays that let you squeeze in your favorites.
Last Thursday, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers rolled up 52 points at home in a 31-point win over Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Tonight's game likely won't distress the scoreboard operator to that extent, but we do have a nice game total of 48.5 points as the Green Bay Packers hit the road to face the Seattle Seahawks as three-point underdogs. Both teams have four wins and are fighting to stay in playoff contention in the NFC.
To score well in your contests, making the right choice for your MVP slot is crucial. Let's get to it!
MVP Candidates
Aaron Rodgers ($17,000 on FanDuel): It's no surprise Rodgers is the highest-priced player on the slate as he carries the highest overall point projection (21.2), according to our model. The Seahawks have limited quarterback scoring, coming in as the fifth-worse matchup versus quarterbacks. However, they also faced early-season Mitchell Trubisky and Dak Prescott, along with rookie Josh Rosen and Derek Carr. Jared Goff averaged over 18 FanDuel points in both of his meetings with them, and Case Keenum had his best game of the year (22.16) against them.
If you played Cam last week and were let down, I can't fault you for being leery of an underdog quarterback on the road on Thursday night. But we have to consider Rodgers for the MVP designation even though it's not a great spot overall and his own performance has taken a step back this season with just a 46 percent Passing Success Rate.
Russell Wilson ($16,500): Russ as a candidate for your MVP slot shouldn't feel weird, but with the way Seattle has played offensively this year, it's fair to wonder if he's worth the price. Last season, the Seahawks ranked 12th in situation neutral pace, per Football Outsiders. With Brian Schottenheimer calling plays, they have fallen to 27th.
That has reduced their total number of plays and, consequently, Wilson's pass attempts. His season high came in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Chargers, with 39, but he's failed to reach 30 attempts in 5 games. Wilson has made up for his lack of passing volume with a touchdown rate of 8.5 percent, the highest of his career.
Russell Wilson is ballin this year and no one notices because Seattle hates fun.
Russ is 26th in pass attempts but is tied for the fourth-most passing touchdowns.
Over the past six weeks, no player is averaging more fantasy points per pass attempt
— TJ Hernandez (@TJHernandez) November 14, 2018
Green Bay comes in 17th versus the pass in numberFire's rankings and 10th against the quarterback position using our advanced stats. Wilson has quietly eclipsed 20 FanDuel points in 4 consecutive games, thanks in large part to 11 touchdown passes. However, Wilson had a season-high nine rushing attempts against the Rams, racking up 92 yards on the ground alongside just 176 through the air. If Wilson's rushing prowess has returned, it should help ease passing volume concerns and once again gives him a high weekly floor and ceiling.
Davante Adams ($16,000): Adams is the clear number-one option for Rodgers and the Pack's passing offense, and has scored at least 12 FanDuel points in every game this year. He's only cleared 100 yards in 3 of those games but has been dominant in the red zone with 20 of his targets coming in that area. His 33 percent air yard market share in the Green Bay offense also easily paces the team.
The Seahawks rank eighth in passing defense, but the matchup may not be as bad as the overall numbers dictate. They have been vulnerable to wide receivers, specifically wide receiver ones. Emmanuel Sanders (24.5 FanDuel points), Allen Robinson (13.3), Marvin Jones (27.2), and Keenan Allen (18.2) have all had productive games against this defense. Adams has a top-10 projection this week, at 14.5 points, and his red zone usage gives him the ceiling you need for your MVP slot.
Aaron Jones ($14,000): If you're a card-carrying member of the Aaron Jones Fan Club like me, then Sunday's game against the Dolphins was like a VIP meet-and-greet experience. Jones had his highest snap share of the season -- 73 percent -- while converting 18 touches into 172 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns. Jamaal Williams had just 3 carries and played only 24 percent of the snaps, his lowest of the year.
Jones faces a Seahawks rushing defense ranked eighth by numberFire and ninth versus the running back position using our advanced stats. They've faced Todd Gurley (23.5), Melvin Gordon (18.8), and Ezekiel Elliott (13.3) thus far, with each rushing for over 100 yards. While he may not have the best matchup, a productive game is still within reach, especially with Rodgers advocating for Jones to receive even more work. He appears to finally have control of the Green Bay backfield, and if you're fading the passing game, Jones is the selection based on role. He has the 13th-highest projection at the running back position this week.
Value Plays
Rashaad Penny ($11,500), Chris Carson ($11,000), Mike Davis ($9,500): Through nine games, you may have better odds of winning at roulette than picking the correct Seattle running back to start each week. With Carson ruled out Sunday, Penny rushed 12 times for 108 yards and a touchdown, scoring 16.8 FanDuel points while playing 39 percent of the snaps. Davis played on 57 percent of the snaps and had 58 yards on 11 carries but received 6 targets, catching 4 of them for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for 16 FanDuel points.
The Packers rank just 26th versus the run so the matchup is one to exploit. Carson was removed from the Seahawks injury report Wednesday and will start. Unfortunately, that muddies the running back waters even more as we decide between the three. Head coach Pete Carroll marches to the beat of his own inner Keith Moon so while Penny may have had his breakout game, we can't be certain it will lead to more touches for the rookie with all three backs healthy. Carson should resume his role as the primary option and is slightly cheaper than Penny.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($8,500): With Randall Cobb still fighting injuries and Geronimo Allison on injured reserve, the rookie from South Florida has ascended to the number-two role opposite Adams in the Green Bay passing attack. Athletically, MVS is a problem for opposing defenders, as evident by his Freak Score of 76, a RotoViz metric that scales height, weight, and 40-yard dash time to project touchdown-scoring potential.
Below are the four highest scores from the 2018 wide receiver class, and fellow Packer Equanimeous St. Brown ($6,500) also comes in near the top.
| Player | Ht | Wt | 40 | Freak Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 77 | 205 | 4.37 | 76 |
| D.J. Chark | 75 | 199 | 4.34 | 72 |
| Allen Lazard | 77 | 227 | 4.55 | 72 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 77 | 214 | 4.48 | 71 |
Valdes-Scantling has played 81 percent and 94 percent of the snaps over the last two games, while earning an 18 percent target share. He leads the Packers in both receiving yards and air yards in the same time frame. Prior to Sunday's game against the Dolphins, MVS had 100 yards receiving or a touchdown in four consecutive games and while that streak was snapped, his role in the offense is secure for another week as Cobb won't make the trip to Seattle. At $8,500, Valdes-Scantling is a great value with legitimate upside as Rodgers' number-two option.
Nick Vannett ($7,000): Finding Wilson's top option in the passing game is also difficult, though perhaps to a lesser extent than deciding which running back to use. Lockett, Baldwin, and Mike Davis all have a target share of 17 percent since Baldwin returned from injury in Week 4. Vannett is right behind them at 16 percent and has scored in two straight games. His overall usage, much like the entire Seahawks passing attack, has been inconsistent. He can provide salary relief at his price but you have to accept his wide range of outcomes against a defense that has not yet allowed a touchdown to the position all year.
Ryan Bobbitt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ryan Bobbitt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Drummerinabox. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his/her personal views, he/she may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his/her personal account. The views expressed in his/her articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
