3 Prop Bets to Target in Week 10
With scoring up overall in the NFL, Week 10 projects to continue that trend. As of this moment, five different games are projected to reach or eclipse 50 points, per lines on FanDuel Sportsbook. However, most of the games appear to be one-sided affairs, with only three games having a 3.0-point line or less.
FanDuel provides a variety of ways to take part in the action, including player prop bets. Here are a few prop bets to target this week, using our projections as a guide.
Marlon Mack Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -108
Placing a $100 bet on the over of Marlon Mack's prop of 61.5 rushing yards nets $92.59 on a winning ticket. Mack faces the formidable defense of the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, but sheer volume makes him a solid target.
Since returning from injury, Mack has 21 and 27 touches in his last two games. This includes passing game and red-zone work, where he has 7 targets and 10 total red-zone opportunities in two games, displaying his three-down capabilities. Coming out of the Colts' bye, Mack also appears healthier, with Indy leaving him off their final injury report going into the weekend.
Coming into this contest, Mack has definitely seen better matchups, but the Jags' defense looks more suspect this year. They currently come ranked 11th against the run, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. However, they recently allowed Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller to eclipse 100 yards on the ground. They also gave up a solid 61 yards to Josh Adams on only 9 carries. Playing behind Indy's stout offensive line, ranked number-two in run blocking by Football Outsiders, Mack should have room to run.
Our projections currently have Mack sitting at 68.11 rushing yards on 13.59 rushing attempts. However, these numbers could climb with the Colts favored by 3.0 at home. Either way, this player prop bet comes in with some value built in. Fire up Mack and watch his rushing success continue.
Patrick Mahomes Over 293.5 Passing Yards -108
Initially, people may be scared off because the Kansas City Chiefs are favored by 16.5 points, thinking they could take their foot off the gas in a potential blowout. However, the Chiefs are implied for a massive, slate-leading 33.25 points. Even in the case of a blowout, Mahomes will likely play a large role in the offensive effectiveness and hit his prop of 293.5 passing yards.
To improve matters, there are a few signs pointing to the Cardinals keeping this game closer than initially expected. First of all, the Chiefs have the 29th-ranked defense and the league's worst run defense, according to our metrics. This plays right into the Cardinals' offensive strengths with David Johnson at running back. New offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will likely look to get Johnson the ball in the passing game, where the Chiefs have allowed the most receiving yards (634) to opposing backs.
Impressively, Mahomes has passed for more than 300 yards in eight straight games and leads the league with 2,901 passing yards. While the Cardinals have played decent defense to this point, they haven't faced an offense like Kansas City's in weeks. Our projections peg Mahomes for 302.77 passing yards, giving him almost 10 yards of value on this prop. Take this bet all day until the line adjusts.
Jarvis Landry Over 77.5 Receiving Yards -108
Any time you can bet on a key component of the Cleveland Browns' passing game you have to, right? Jokes aside, Jarvis Landry and the Browns' passing attack has largely struggled this season, but this creates a buying opportunity for the entire offense. A $100 bet on the over on Landry's 77.5 receiving yards nets $92.59.
Despite the lack of production, Landry continues to see massive volume in the Cleveland offense. Coming into the week, he ranks second in targets (97) and fifth in air yards (1,017). The Browns enter this contest as 5.5-point home underdogs, indicating the potential for elevated passing attempts as Cleveland plays catch-up football.
Landry also has a solid matchup in the slot against the Atlanta Falcons' defense. By our metrics, the Falcons rank 30th in passing defense, partly due to injuries to Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Deion Jones. Nevertheless, the Falcons have had particular trouble defending the slot, where Landry runs 59.7% of his routes. The Falcons recently allowed slot receivers Maurice Harris, Sterling Shepard, and Tyler Boyd to reach or eclipse 100 yards receiving.
Projected for 84.00 yards by our metrics, Landry comes in with 6.5 yards of value on his prop. With the over/under set at 50.5 points, bookmakers expect both teams to move the ball well, which should play to the benefit of Landry. Hit this player prop bet before Landry's production falls back in line with his volume.