3 Player Prop Bets to Target in Week 6
Injuries and the fluidity of match-ups week-to-week make NFL fantasy projections particularly difficult. However, analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, and current personnel a team will employ can create an edge for all types of fantasy football.
Christian McCaffrey Over 50 Receiving Yards / Carolina Win +250
Bookmakers currently project this game to be close, with Carolina winning by only a point. However, our models see the game playing out more in Carolina's favor, with the Panthers winning by a score of 26.49 to 21.46. With over four extra points in value, the Panther side of this parlay looks rock solid.
On the player side, McCaffrey's skill-set should cause Washington problems all day. The second-year pro is seeing 81.1 percent of the Panthers' running back touches, including 32 targets in four games. Washington plays run-funnel defense, ranking 29th against the run and 8th against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted metrics. Washington's run game woes extend into the passing game, where they've allowed 27 receptions and 162 yards to enemy running backs, boding well for McCaffrey.
Our projections slate McCaffrey for 51.04 receiving yards, just above his prop. With value on the side of the Panthers in this one, wagering even a small amount on this McCaffrey/Carolina parlay could lead to a big payday.
Jameis Winston Over 282.5 Passing Yards -102
A $100 bet on Jameis Winston -- who is fresh off a bye and in a particularly pass-friendly environment in Week 6 -- eclipsing 282.5 passing yards nets $98.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set for a clash against the Atlanta Falcons in a game with a 57.5-point total. The Falcons limp into this game with an injury-ravaged defense. Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, Deion Jones, Grady Jarrett, and Derrick Shelby all will miss Week 6. Atlanta owns the league's 30th-ranked pass defense, per our metrics.
Winston's yardage projection is further bolstered by Tampa Bay's inability to run the ball. Peyton Barber has averaged 2.97 yards per carry on 50 attempts this season, and Ronald Jones could not make the active roster until Week 4.
As 3.0-point underdogs, the Bucs should turn to the air early and often. Our projections have Winston slated for 293.35 passing yards, a full 10 yards above his listed prop. In a projected pass-happy situation, Winston's player prop looks like a lock on this week's card.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 70.5 Receiving Yards +110
While Ben Roethlisberger's struggles on the road have been well documented, JuJu Smith-Schuster's player prop provides too much value to ignore. A $100 bet on Smith-Schuster besting 70.5 receiving yards returns $110.
This is very much a bet on opportunity and situation for JuJu. The second-year pro ranks 9th in targets (53), 11th in receiving yards (406), and 7th in catches (35) this season. He takes this volume to Cincinnati to face a Bengals defense that has allowed the sixth-most catches (73) and ninth-most receiving yards (882) to opposing wide receivers.
Our projections have Smith-Schuster slated for 85.58 receiving yards, a touch more than 15 yards above his player prop. With some of the best odds for an individual wide receiver prop, JuJu should provide a solid return this week.