Week 5 NFL FanDuel Late Afternoon Slate Breakdown
The Week 5 afternoon slate on FanDuel (4:05pm ET) once again features the two high-powered offenses in Los Angeles, but for the first time this season we'll see the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles on the late slate.
But the Vikings and Eagles square off in Philadelphia in a particularly interesting spot. Both teams are coming off a loss and they have each trotted out subpar pass defenses through the first four weeks of the season. With each of these teams needing to get back into the win column, that could wind up being the highest scoring game on the slate.
|Matchup (Implied Team Total)||Game Total|
|Oakland Raiders (24.0) at Los Angeles Chargers (29.0)||53.0|
|Los Angeles Rams (29.0) at Seattle Seahawks (21.5)||50.5|
|Minnesota Vikings (21.75) at Philadelphia Eagles (24.75)||46.5|
|Arizona Cardinals (18.0) at San Francisco 49ers (22.0)||40.0|
Among the tournaments available on the slate this week are the $400,000 NFL Rush, which costs $9 to play and pays out $100,000 to first. The $55,000 NFL Bomb costs $33 to play and pays out $7,000 to whomever bests the 1,960-entry field. For single entry fans, the $5 NFL Spike has a $30,000 prize pool and pays out $3,000 to the winner.
Now, let's break down the top plays and fades at each position.
Lock: Jared Goff ($8,000) - The Rams offense is rolling right now, scoring more than 30 points in each of their first 4 games. Goff has thrown for more than 350 yards in each of the past 3 games and he's racked up 11 touchdowns on the season. Against a Seattle Seahawks defense that will now be without Earl Thomas, it's hard to see the Rams slowing down in Week 5. The Seahawks pass defense ranks 17th, per numberFire metrics, but they've yet to really be challenged. Thus far, the Seahawks have faced Case Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Josh Rosen -- not exactly an intimidating group. Coming off a 465 yard, 5 touchdown performance, Goff is once again in position for a big game.
Fade: Josh Rosen ($6,400) - Both Rosen and C.J. Beathard are unappealing options on this slate. The matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers carries an over/under of just 40.0 points, the lowest on the slate. The Cardinals implied team total is only 18.0, also the lowest on the slate. In his debut last week, Rosen threw for 180 yards and 1 touchdown, and in a projected low-scoring game, there isn't much upside with him, even though he's one of the lowest-priced quarterbacks on the slate.
Sleeper: Carson Wentz ($7,500) - The fourth-highest priced quarterback on the afternoon slate, Wentz will be making his third start of the season against a Vikings defense that is not nearly as good as we expected it to be. Through 4 weeks, the Vikings defense ranks 26th, per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, and they've allowed an average of 27.5 points per game. The Vikings pass defense ranks a lowly 27th, while the run defense has been steady, ranking 17th. Wentz has played well since returning from injury, completing 66% of his passes and going over 300 yards in an overtime win against Tennessee last week. Wentz hasn't added much value rushing this year, but against a suspect Vikings pass defense, Wentz may go overlooked among the other quarterbacks this week.
Lock: Todd Gurley ($9,100) - Similar to what we mentioned with Goff, this Rams offense is seemingly unstoppable at the moment. Melvin Gordon is also a strong play this week, but even he hasn't been able to top Gurley's usage or production this season. Gurley's 39.92% market share ranks as the 4th-best among all running backs as he's averaging nearly 20 carries a game and 4 targets each week. Gurley has scored at least once in every game and he's topped 140 total yards in 3 out of 4 -- the lone exception coming in Week 2 where he scored 3 touchdowns.
Fade: Dalvin Cook ($6,300) - After missing Week 3 with a hamstring injury, Cook returned in Week 4, but tallied just 10 carries for 20 yards against the Rams. Cook also only played 24.3% of the team's snaps, fewer than Latavius Murray (55.4%). Cook has already been missing practices this week and the matchup on Sunday is not great. The Eagles boast a top-12 run defense, per numberFire metrics, and have held opponents to 63 rushing yards per game with only 2 touchdowns through 4 weeks. A clearly hobbled Cook against a stingy Eagles run defense isn't in play for Week 5.
Sleeper: Matt Breida ($6,200) - The 49ers offense didn't completely tank last week with C.J. Beathard at the helm and that's promising for Breida moving forward as he'll face a Cardinals defense that hasn't fared well against the run. Ranking as the league's 9th-worst run defense, per numberFire metrics, the Cardinals have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (7) on the season and the second-most rushing yards per game (141.2). Limiting Breida's ceiling is the fact that he continues to split time with Alfred Morris, but Breida played a season-high 63.3% of the 49ers' snaps in Week 4. Averaging 13 touches per game, Breida should carry relatively low ownership for a short slate.
Lock: Adam Thielen ($8,300) - Thielen and Stefon Diggs ($8,200) are the two most expensive receivers on the slate, and they're both in position for monster games. Thielen leads the league in targets (56) and he's posted 4 straight 100-yard games to begin the year. Diggs, on the other hand, has seen just 12 fewer looks than Thielen, but he's found the end zone 3 times and posted two 100-yard games himself. With a Vikings defense struggling to stop everyone from Josh Allen to Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins has been forced to chuck the ball all over the yard to keep pace. Cousins is averaging 47.25 pass attempts per game, the most among all quarterbacks entering Week 5, and with the Eagles run defense likely to stop the Vikings running game, Cousins should once again be throwing often on Sunday.
Fade: Larry Fitzgerald ($6,400) - Dealing with back and hamstring injuries, Fitzgerald hasn't had more than 3 catches or 28 yards in a game since Week 1. Fitzgerald is averaging fewer than five targets per game over the past three weeks and the Cardinals should once again be involved in a low-scoring affair in Week 5. The 49ers' pass defense is far from imposing, but in Rosen's first start last week, Fitzgerald was out-targeted (7-5) by rookie Christian Kirk.
Sleeper: Nelson Agholor ($6,100) - The box score hasn't looked great for Agholor to start the season as he's only scored 1 touchdown and has been held to 33 yards or fewer in 3 out of 4 games. But Agholor has seen at least 10 targets in all but 1 game, and that continued in Week 5, even with Alshon Jeffery returning to the lineup. Agholor saw 12 targets to Jeffery's 9 and only Zach Ertz (47) has seen more targets on the season than Agholor (39). Against a suspect Vikings pass defense and in a game with high-scoring potential, Agholor could finally put up a big stat line on all of those targets.
Lock: Zach Ertz ($7,500) - Ertz is by far the most expensive tight end on the slate -- $1,100 more than George Kittle -- but he has been a rock-solid producer all year despite not yet scoring a touchdown. Ertz has seen at least 10 targets per game and leads the Eagles in targets inside the 10-yard line (3). He's bound to find the end zone soon and it could be against a Vikings team that has allowed the 15th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, including top-10 weeks to Kittle and Jimmy Graham. Even if Ertz is held out of the end zone once again, he's averaging just under 8 catches a game for 81 yards this season.
Fade: Ricky Seals-Jones ($5,100) - Seals-Jones caught 2-of-4 targets for 52 yards last week in Rosen's first start. It was a season-high in yardage for Seals-Jones, but he played just 65% of the team's snaps after playing no fewer than 84% in the previous 3 weeks. Seals-Jones is now up to 10 catches on the season, but this 49ers-Cardinals matchup is the least attractive on paper and Seals-Jones doesn't figure to see many scoring opportunities. He has just 1 red zone target through 4 games.
Sleeper: Nick Vannett ($4,300) - Vannett and Will Dissly had been splitting playing time and targets pretty evenly through four weeks, but with Dissly now on injured reserve, Vannett should see a bump in playing time against a Rams defense that has been burned by tight ends. The Rams have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends even though they haven't allowed an opposing tight end to hit the end zone yet. The Seahawks are 7.5-point home underdogs in this matchup and even though they've shown they want to run the ball -- Russell Wilson ranks 22nd in pass attempts per game (30.25) -- they'll most likely have to air it out more often to keep pace with the Rams.
Blair Ames is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Blair Ames also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Bames31. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.