Monday Night Preview: Can the Red-Hot Chiefs Continue Their Winning Streak Against the Broncos?
The Chiefs are fresh off a 38-27 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, remaining perfect to start the season. The Broncos, on the other hand, lost their last game 27-14 against the Baltimore Ravens, dropping their record to 2-1.
Despite a strong start, Kansas City has allowed at least 27 point in each game. Week 4's Monday Night Preview will take a look at the Chiefs' defense and a few other match-ups likely to influence the outcome of the game.
For the Chiefs, breakout quarterback Patrick Mahomes will look to continue his brilliant start to the season. Mahomes has recorded 896 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions on the year. The second-year pro has impressed per our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric as well. Among 27 quarterbacks with at least 90 drop backs heading into Week 4, Mahomes' 0.61 Passing NEP per drop back ranks first.
On the other side, Case Keenum has started the year with 743 passing yards, 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. While the box score looks decent at first glance, Keenum has largely disappointed based on our NEP metric. Among the aforementioned group, Keenum's -0.01 Passing NEP per drop back ranks 22nd. Traveling back home, Keenum will look to improve on an up and down start to the season.
Running Back Breakdown
Led by Kareem Hunt, the Chief's backfield has been underutilized with the passing game firing on all cylinders. Last year's rushing leader has a mere 168 rushing yards and a pair of scores to start the season. Looking at the advanced metrics, Hunt's -0.03 Rushing NEP per carry ranks 12th among the 23 running backs that had at least 35 carries entering Week 4.
On the other side, the Broncos will trot out a three-man committee consisting of Royce Freeman, Phillip Lindsay, and Devontae Booker. Freeman has carried the ball the most with 36 attempts. On these carries, Freeman actually ties Hunt with a Rushing NEP per carry of -0.03. Undrafted rookie Lindsay leads the team with a Rushing NEP of 0.16, but he sits second on the team in carries after an early ejection in Week 3. Booker has become more of an afterthought with Lindsay's emergence, recording carry counts of 2, 3, and 5 in the team's first three games.
Per our schedule-adjusted metrics, the Broncos enter this contest with the 19th ranked defense, while the Chiefs slot in dead last.
The Chiefs have been absolutely obliterated on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 31st in both pass and run defense.
The Broncos look far more imbalanced with the 26th-ranked pass defense, but the 3rd-ranked run defense.
With each team struggling on the defensive side of the ball, especially in the passing game, offensive fireworks could ensue.
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