3 Prop Bets to Target in Week 4
With the NFL season rolling along and the identity of each team forming, bettors can start to look at lines with more confidence. Ahead of Week 4, FanDuel released a slew of player prop bets for the public to take advantage of.
With injuries and variance from previous weeks to exploit, here are three prop bets that stand out ahead of the Week 4 action.
Please note that lines and our projections may change after this article is published.
Jarvis Landry 100+ Receiving Yards/Cleveland Browns Win +410
Yes, this is the Cleveland Browns we're talking about. However, it is important to note that bookmakers have yet to fully adjust to this 2018 Browns team. Baker Mayfield's emergence as the starting quarterback along with the team's 1-31 struggles over the past two-plus seasons create a buying opportunity for the whole offense, including this week's player prop bets.
In the Player Performance Doubles section, a $100 bet on Jarvis Landry to eclipse 100 receiving yards combined with a Browns win outright nets $410.
Set to start his first game with Mayfield at quarterback, Landry should be the primary beneficiary in this passing attack. Through three games, Landry's 35 targets rank sixth in the NFL, and he has eclipsed 100 yards in two out of his three games. Last week, Mayfield came of the bench to throw for 201 yards in just over a half of football, and Landry was the target on 9 of Mayfield's 23 attempts
This week, the duo takes on the Oakland Raiders, a team that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards this season. Our schedule-adjusted metrics rate the Oakland pass defense as the 25th-best in football.
As for the Browns win outright, this Cleveland team is unfairly projected to lose by 4.0-points by oddsmakers. Cleveland faces an 0-3 Oakland team, one that has allowed at least 20 points in each game this season. On top of their poor pass defense, the Raiders have the lowest sack rate, which should allow Mayfield a clean pocket.
To make matters worse for Oakland, Cleveland appears to have remade their defense into a fortress. Our metrics currently have the Browns rated as the second-best defense, and they own the seventh-highest sack rate in the NFL.
With some of the most favorable odds on the slate, the Browns remain a team to target.
Tevin Coleman Over 58.5 Rushing Yards -102
In two games without Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman has rushing totals of 107 and 33 yards. Last week, he predictably disappointed against the league's premier pass funnel defense in the New Orleans Saints. Per our metrics, the Saints have the league's worst pass defense and the best run defense.
This week, Coleman will face a struggling Cincinnati Bengals D, one that was absolutely torched by Christian McCaffrey last week for 184 rushing yards. This Cincinnati team has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs and an additional 179 yards through the air, making Coleman's 85.5 rushing/receiving line a solid bet, as well.
Coleman has 15 and 16 carries in his last two games and should see at least that many this weekend. Bookmakers are projecting fireworks, with this game owning the highest over/under on the slate at 53.0. Our projections have Coleman slated for 62.04 rushing yards, a number he could easily pass.
A $100 bet on Coleman surpassing 58.5 rushing yards nets $98, and it's a bet we'll take all day.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 65.5 Receiving Yards -102
In this week's Sunday night game, JuJu Smith-Schuster is grossly underpriced compared to teammate Antonio Brown. JuJu's 65.5 receiving yards over/under is a full 30 yards less than Brown's 98.5 receiving yards over/under.
On the season, both Brown and Smith-Schuster have been heavily targeted with 42 and 38 targets, respectively. JuJu has eclipsed 115 receiving yards in each game this season.
While the Baltimore Ravens rank as our second-best defense, they've faced the poor quarterback play of Nathan Peterman, Andy Dalton, and Case Keenum. Pittsburgh ranks as our seventh-best passing attack and should exploit a particularly strong matchup in the slot.
A $100 bet on Smith-Schuster besting 65.5 receiving yards nets $98 and looks like a lock on the Week 4 slate.