The Best Bets to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards Based on numberFire's Projections

Using our projections as a guide, which players make for good bets to pace the league in receiving yards in 2018?

Last season, Antonio Brown led the league in receiving yards with 1,533 yards. Brown has led the NFL in receiving yards two of the past four seasons and is one of four active players to lead the league in receiving yards. The other active receivers are T.Y. Hilton, Julio Jones, and Josh Gordon.

Unsurprisingly, Brown is +200 on Betfair, making him the favorite to lead the league in receiving this season. But is betting on Brown at those odds really worth it? Let's take a look at their odds.

Wide Receiver/Tight EndBetfair Odds
Antonio Brown+200
Julio Jones+500
Odell Beckham Jr.+800
DeAndre Hopkins+1200
Keenan Allen+1200
Adam Thielen+1400
T.Y. Hilton+1400
Michael Thomas+1600
A.J. Green+2000
Mike Evans+2000
Doug Baldwin+4000
Davante Adams+4000
Travis Kelce+5000
Marvin Jones Jr.+5000
Josh Gordon+5000
Jarvis Landry+5000
Alshon Jeffery+6600
Amari Cooper+6600
Marquise Goodwin+6600
Stefon Diggs+6600
Corey Davis+6600
Tyreek Hill+6600
Brandin Cooks+8000
Golden Tate+8000
Larry Fitzgerald+8000
Juju Smith-Schuster+8000
Cooper Kupp+10000
Sammy Watkins+10000
Rob Gronkowski+10000
Robert Woods+10000
Demaryius Thomas+10000
Pierre Garcon+10000
Chris Hogan+10000
Emmanuel Sanders+10000
Zach Ertz+10000
Julian Edelman+10000
Allen Robinson+10000
Jordy Nelson+15000
John Ross+15000
Kenny Stills+15000
Devin Funchess+20000
Greg Olsen+20000
Robby Anderson+20000
Kelvin Benjamin+30000
Desean Jackson+30000

Now that we know the odds, which players look like possible values? Let's check out numberFire's season-long projections to see who stands out. Betfair has odds listed for both wide receivers and a few tight ends. Three of the top six favorites have led the league in receiving yards. Gordon's odds are worse because of the uncertainty surrounding his playing status.

The Data

This table is sorted by our receiving yards projections, and Jones is projected to lead the league in that category.

Wide Receiver/Tight End Betfair Odds numberFire Projections for Receiving Yards
Julio Jones +500 1,542
DeAndre Hopkins +1200 1,499
Antonio Brown +200 1,477
Michael Thomas +1600 1,369
Odell Beckham Jr. +800 1,351
Mike Evans +2000 1,324
Keenan Allen +1200 1,281
A.J. Green +2000 1,212
Doug Baldwin +4000 1,187
Davante Adams +4000 1,147
Adam Thielen +1400 1,132
Amari Cooper +6600 1,089
T.Y. Hilton +1400 1,070
Larry Fitzgerald +8000 1,055
Demaryius Thomas +10000 1,045
Allen Robinson +10000 1,032
Stefon Diggs +6600 1,030
Golden Tate +8000 1,026
Rob Gronkowski +10000 1,010
Tyreek Hill +6600 1,008
Travis Kelce +5000 988
Brandin Cooks +8000 976
Marvin Jones Jr. +5000 971
Sammy Watkins +10000 970
Josh Gordon +5000 968
Pierre Garcon +10000 944
Jarvis Landry +5000 921
Zach Ertz +10000 897
Robby Anderson +20000 884
Emmanuel Sanders +10000 875
Juju Smith-Schuster +8000 862
Alshon Jeffery +6600 859
Devin Funchess +20000 858
Kenny Stills +15000 848
Chris Hogan +10000 845
Kelvin Benjamin +30000 829
Corey Davis +6600 824
Robert Woods +10000 822
Greg Olsen +20000 804
Marquise Goodwin +6600 802
Cooper Kupp +10000 789
Desean Jackson +30000 748
Jordy Nelson +15000 724
Julian Edelman +10000 696
John Ross +15000 594

The Most Valuable Value

Among receivers projected to finish in the top ten in receiving yards, Davante Adams stands out as a value at 40-1 odds. Aaron Rodgers' number one target will be Adams. Last season, Adams was targeted on 19.3% of passes from Rodgers, which led the Packers according to The Quant Edge.

Jordy Nelson has since joined Gruden's Retirement Castle in Oakland, which leaves another 14.7% of targets open for the taking.

Since Rodgers began starting games in 2008, he has helped ten wideouts reach 1,000 or more receiving yards. While Adams has never surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in a season, he has also never been the top target in Green Bay's offense with Rodgers running the show. Adams had 885 yards in 14 games last season, and half of those came with Brett Hundley under center.

After winning just seven games in an injury-marred 2017 season, the Packers are projected to win 10 games this season on Betfair. Rodgers has averaged more passing yards per game in wins over his career according to the Rotoviz Game Splits App.

The implied odds of winning a +4000 bet are just 2.44%, but our projections have Adams accruing 1,147 yards. That ranks tenth among all projected wide receivers and tight ends.

Other Values and Longshots

Our projections like Amari Cooper to rack up 1,089 receiving yards, which would rank 12th among receivers. Getting a projected top-12 wideout at 66-1 odds is intriguing. The NFL betting market is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of market. Cooper endured an abysmal 2017 season, with quarterback Derek Carr playing injured for much of it. But Cooper finished 8th in receiving yards in 2016, and 20th in his rookie season in 2015.

The upside is there in the Raiders' offense with the loss of Michael Crabtree. If Cooper can return to his 2016 form with a healthy QB, those 66-1 odds are looking mighty fine.

The greatest tight end of all-time, Rob Gronkowski, is 100-1 to lead the league in receiving. He is playing with the greatest quarterback of all-time, Tom Brady. For comparison's sake, the Browns are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl this season. You have to like Gronk's odds more. Gronk finished tenth in receiving yards last season and only played in 14 games. He's well worth the risk if he can stay healthy.