Exactly How Valuable Were Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara in Fantasy Football This Past Season?
When we look back on the 2017 fantasy football season, we may remember all the quarterback injuries. Maybe we'll think about the lack of wide receiver production.
Or perhaps we'll keep things simple and just call it The Year of Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara.
Both Gurley and Kamara brought unique value to fantasy teams this past season. Gurley, for one, had ridiculous performances during Weeks 15 and 16, leading tons of fantasy football squads to championship wins. He had timely performances piled onto a crazy-good season.
Kamara didn't post the same type of numbers Gurley did, but he was far cheaper to obtain during fantasy drafts. Given the combination of points scored and draft equity used in getting Kamara, he was an ultra-valuable asset this past season.
But exactly how valuable were these guys? How fortunate were fantasy owners to have them?
Well, one way to figure this out is to look at average draft position versus points scored across a historical sample.
The scatterplot above is depicting every running back that's been selected in PPR leagues over the last seven seasons. The x-axis represents the player's average pick according to MyFantasyLeague.com's average draft position data, while the y-axis is the number of points that player scored.
As you can see, Gurley and Kamara are both far above the trendline, meaning they outperformed expectation by quite a bit in 2017.
And based off that trendline, they were both top-five running backs in exceeding expected fantasy points scored since 2011.
| Player | Avg Pick | Year | PPR Points | Expected Points | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 7.84 | 2016 | 407.80 | 194.75 | 213.05 |
| Alvin Kamara | 140.76 | 2017 | 314.40 | 101.45 | 212.95 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 160.95 | 2013 | 296.60 | 87.28 | 209.32 |
| Todd Gurley | 19.88 | 2017 | 383.30 | 186.30 | 197.00 |
| Devonta Freeman | 113.43 | 2015 | 316.40 | 120.63 | 195.77 |
This was also the case when looking at things from a fantasy points scored per game perspective.
Again, the x-axis is showing the average pick for a running back, but this time, the y-axis is telling us the number of PPR points per game that running back scored. Here's where the two backs rank among the sample in fantasy points scored versus expectation.
| Player | Avg Pick | Year | PPR PPG | Expected PPG | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 13.20 | 2016 | 26.45 | 14.27 | 12.18 |
| Devonta Freeman | 113.43 | 2015 | 21.09 | 9.06 | 12.03 |
| Alvin Kamara | 140.76 | 2017 | 19.65 | 7.64 | 12.01 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 160.95 | 2013 | 18.54 | 6.59 | 11.95 |
| Todd Gurley | 19.88 | 2017 | 25.55 | 13.92 | 11.63 |
If you were able to snag either Kamara or Gurley in a draft last August, consider yourself lucky. And you probably shouldn't expect to be able to do that year over year.
