The ongoing argument about whether or not Rotoworld.com, it's been reported that the Jets are trying to limit Geno Smith to fewer than 20 passes per game next year. That's about 320 pass attempts for Geno Smith this upcoming season, which is 96 fewer than what Colin Kaepernick saw in the league’s most run-heavy offense this past season.
Even if Geno Smith makes the most significant jump our numbers have ever seen from a quarterback in Year 1 to Year 2, the passing game’s fantasy outlook won’t automatically see an increase in production due to the team’s obvious love for pounding the rock. And that’s terrible news for Eric Decker.
Decker in 2014
To many, the one saving grace for Decker is the fact that he scored eight times in 2011 for Denver while Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton were quarterbacking. But please (please!) don't let that touchdown total overshadow what actually happened that season.
As mentioned in my article on Decker from last week, of the 127 seasons since 2000 where a receiver had between 90 and 100 targets (Decker had 94 in 2011), Decker's Reception NEP ranked 109th. And if you look at the 626 seasons where a receiver had 90 or more targets, Decker's 2011 campaign ranked 589th. So, sure, he scored eight touchdowns, but he also was really, really inefficient.
And while this won't be a popular statistic, the 2011 Broncos ranked 29th within our Adjusted Passing Net Expected Points metric - when adjusted for strength of schedule, they weren't the worst passing team with Orton and Tebow. Their adjusted number was -64.81, losing almost 65 points through the air compared to what a team would do in a similar situation. In 2013, the Jets finished just 10 points better, ranking 28th. It's not as though Decker is being placed in this superior situation when comparing it to the 2011 Broncos, and if the reports are true about Geno's potential volume in 2014, the Jets could be just as run-happy.
I haven't even mentioned the fact that he'll be facing tough AFC East corners next season, is now the focal point at receiver for opposing defenses, or that no New York Jets wideout had more than two top-24 (WR2) weekly performances in PPR leagues last year (Week 17 aside). And actually, New York Jets receivers saw just six totalweekly top-24 games a season ago - that's as many as Victor Cruz and Mike Wallace had individually.
We all wanted him to go to Indianapolis. It would have been a fantasy football dream, making the position that much deeper. But now, in New York, Eric Decker's fantasy value has completely gone away. It's not just because he isn't a true number one receiver, either.