FanDuel Daily Fantasy Football Helper: Pro Bowl
If you've never played daily fantasy football on FanDuel before, it's time to start. Unlike traditional leagues, you're able to select the players you want on that specific day only, giving you a different squad to root for each and every week.
Here at numberFire we offer great tools for premium members. The analysis below is meant to help you understand why some of these players are top picks in our tools and projections because we don't want you going into the weekend completely blind. We want to help you. Keep in mind, however, that things can change drastically if an injury is announced, so make sure you're double checking the tools and projections as close as possible to kickoff.
Let's break down the Pro Bowl from a DFS perspective.
The format for the Pro Bowl slate is unlike what you've grown accustomed to on FanDuel throughout the season, and that includes the SuperFlex setup. For the Pro Bowl, you roster five players -- regardless of position -- and one of them has his points doubled. You have the usual $60,000 salary cap for your five flex spots, and you have to roster at least one player from each conference. Scoring is the same as usual, aside from the player you choose to flex in the multiplier slot.
The Pro Bowl isn't the most predictable football game imaginable, as there won't be target hogs, and recent market share data is out the window. However, there is a lot to glean from digging into past games, which our own Jim Sannes did earlier this week. Using those principles as well as injury and other news, let's break down some of the players with the best shot to produce for your lineups.
Players to Consider
Antonio Brown (FanDuel Price: $14,000) - Shying away from injured players and players who played deep into the playoffs makes a lot of sense from a practicality standpoint, but you can afford pretty much any player you want on FanDuel this week. After Brown's 11-target, 132-yard, 2-touchdown game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, it's safe to say that he's healthy enough to break a big play in this type of game. Four of the six games with at least 20 FanDuel points over the past five Pro Bowls have come from a wide receiver, and Brown could see some extra looks from his quarterback.
Ben Roethlisberger ($12,000) - Quarterbacks tend to offer up some safe floors here, as they have roughly one pass-heavy quarter each. That guaranteed volume makes them all viable to an extent. Roethlisberger's average depth of target (9.8 yards downfield) ranked seventh this season (according to ProFootballFocus), and among Pro Bowl quarterbacks, it's second behind Russell Wilson's 10.4 aDOT. Wilson is also in play at $13,500, but you don't want to load up on too many quarterbacks.
Michael Thomas ($10,500) - Thomas also ended the season with a strong game: 7 catches on 13 targets for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns. Thomas is a red zone threat, and with only one running back rushing touchdown over the past four Pro Bowls, close scores are expected to come through the air to tight ends and big-bodied wideouts. It doesn't hurt that Drew Brees will take some snaps for the NFC, either.
Kyle Rudolph ($10,000) - Rudolph racked up 122 yards and a touchdown on 5 catches back in the 2012 Pro Bowl. Despite waning target totals, he played 88% and 96% of snaps in his two playoff games. Teams must play at least one tight end on each play, so Rudolph could get looks and be overlooked by most of your opponents because of his recent production. Further, rostering tight ends -- possibly two -- is a smart route for the Pro Bowl slate.
Doug Baldwin ($9,500) - Baldwin will see some targets from his quarterback here, and his Seattle Seahawks missed the playoffs. Baldwin racked up 14.2 FanDuel points on 3 catches last year (plus 67 yards and a touchdown, a 47-yarder). Baldwin was a reserve, too, replacing the injured Larry Fitzgerald. He could have a little extra motivation here, and that could go a long way.
Keenan Allen ($9,500) - Allen re-emerged this season, finishing with 1,393 yards and 6 touchdowns on 102 catches. This is his first Pro Bowl, as well, and he's competing in the skills challenge. Allen ranked sixth among 27 receivers with at least 100 targets this season in our Reception Net Expected Points (NEP) per target metric, indicating that the big-play ability is there, too.
Davante Adams ($8,500) - Right behind Allen in per-target efficiency was Adams, despite playing on the league's 20th-ranked passing offense by our metrics. Adams, both a first-time Pro Bowler and a replacement pick, is also competing in the skills competition. The motivation factor looks to be there for Allen and Adams, and they could fly a bit under the radar with it being so easy to spend up for big names such as Brown.
T.Y. Hilton ($8,000) - The Indianapolis Colts ranked 24th in passing efficiency this year, but Hilton still managed to rank 9th in per-target Reception NEP because of his big-play output. Hilton is no stranger to the Pro Bowl, as this is his fourth straight, but the explosiveness is still there. That home run ability matters in this type of format.
Jack Doyle ($6,000) - Hilton's teammate could fly under the radar, as he's buried on the tight end pricing list behind Rudolph, Jimmy Graham ($7,500), Delanie Walker ($7,000), and Jason Witten ($6,500). Doyle did suffer from Jacoby Brissett's inefficient play, and he graded out as one of the least-efficient high-volume tight ends of 2017, but he suffered from the seventh-lowest aDOT of all tight ends this season. He's a leverage play from other options in this price range in case he gets some deep looks in this game.