NFL
Way Too Early Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Round 3 Results and Analysis
Aaron Rodgers was selected in Round 3, but to an unlikely team.

Last week, a portion of the numberFire team got together and did a six round, 0.5 PPR fantasy football mock draft. On Friday, this

Bernard finished his rookie season with a Total NEP that ranked 15th among all NFL running backs. Moreover, if you only peep at backs with significant rushing volume (150 or more carries), Bernard was a top-10 running back when you add his Rushing and Receiving NEP scores together. He can do it all, which is why I wanted him on my team.

Another 2013 rookie dropped off the board right after I selected Bernard, as Daniel Lindsey snagged San Diego’s Keenan Allen. I’ve looked at how unbelievable Allen’s rookie campaign was (here) already, but in short, let me give it to you like this: Keenan Allen was one of the best rookie wide receivers we’ve seen in recent history. After a questionable Round 2 pick in Antonio Brown, I love Lindsey’s Keenan Allen selection.

The second tight end left the board in Round 3, as Julius Thomas was drafted by Chris Raybon. Raybon had already selected Le’Veon Bell and Zac Stacy, and after three rounds, his team now sits wide receiver-less. Even still, getting one of Peyton Manning’s favorite red zone targets is always a smart move.

Thomas ranked fourth in the league among tight ends in Reception NEP in 2013, and second in Target NEP. Though his touchdown production may dip in 2014, we should fully expect Thomas to keep up his pace, as long as he’s healthy.

After Thomas came Knowshon Moreno, the third Bronco to be selected in the third round. I already talked about this a bit with Montee Ball, but remember, the assumption is that Knowshon Moreno is a Bronco next year, though this is unlikely to be the case.

Moreno was a top five runner in every imaginable way according to our metrics this past year, but in the case of this draft, would be competing with Montee Ball for playing time in 2014. It’s kind of a dumb point to discuss because it’s probably not going to happen, so let’s move on and say that whoever is starting in Denver will more than likely be a second- or third-round fantasy selection in 2014.

Pierre Garcon went next to Mark Berenbaum. It’ll be interesting to see how the new regime in Washington treats Garcon, who was the highest-targeted receiver in 2013. As a result, Garcon finished with a Reception NEP of 109.62, the 13th-best mark in the league.

We’ll more than likely see a decline in targets next season, but a healthy Robert Griffin III should be able to make Garcon a little more efficient than his 0.60 Reception NEP per target average in 2013. That mark was the second-worst score among the top-25 receivers in Reception Net Expected Points last year. In other words, Garcon only ranked high in Reception NEP because he was seeing so much volume.

Joe Redemann followed up Mark’s Garcon selection with another Washington Redskin, Alfred Morris. Morris was a late-ish first rounder a season ago, but finished the year with the 15th-most fantasy points. That being said, he was still a pretty consistent fantasy back, finishing with nine RB1 or RB2 weekly performances.

Morris saw fewer touches in his sophomore year, all while running with less efficiency. When you combine those two pieces, you see why he went from being a top-5 back to a top-15 one from 2012 to 2013. Even still, he was the 16th running back off the board, which is solid value for a player who is just a season removed from being one of the best in our pretend game.

Another controversial back was drafted just after Morris, as Brian McGlade selected Arian Foster. The Texans runner is Brian’s RB1, which is clearly a risk, but one that could (hypothetically - it’s not like we’re playing this league through) pan out in the end.

It’s not as though Foster was useless when healthy last year. He still had five top-24 weekly performances in eight games, though he only scored two touchdowns, 15 fewer than his previous season. Was it just an unlucky year for Houston’s star? It may have been, and we’ll find out with backup runner Ben Tate likely leaving the team this offseason.

The final pick of the third round went to numberFire CEO Nik Bonaddio, as he selected his second quarterback in this one-quarterback league mock. An eyebrow raiser for sure, Nik mentioned that he selected Aaron Rodgers to trade him away, selecting best player available. With the position being so deep, it would be interesting to see what type of transaction Nik would be able to throw down for his clear-cut top-three fantasy quarterback.

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