NFL
Statistical Showdown: The 2007 Patriots or the 2013 Broncos?
Randy Moss contributed a lot to the Patriots 2007, but did they perform better than the 2013 Broncos?

Over the past 10 years, we've seen two of the greatest seasons ever from a quarterback, individual and team records shattered, high-scoring offenses become the norm and quarterbacks with near-perfect seasons.

In an offensive-driven league, two teams have stood out over the rest during this time: the 2007 New England Patriots and the 2013 Denver Broncos.

In 2007, the Patriots set the bar for any offense and for almost any team considering the excellent defense they had. The Broncos tried to one-up them in 2013, compiling some of the most ridiculous metrics ever recorded on an NFL gridiron.

So who was better - the 2007 Pats or the 2013 Broncos? Ultimate success could be measured in Super Bowls, but both teams failed to win the big game in their respective seasons. Both teams were fortunate to have a Hall of Fame quarterback, depth chart), Decker’s Reception NEP was higher than 22 other number one receivers in 2013.

Rounding out the Broncos version of the Four Horsemen was Julius Thomas. This Thomas was a surprise to all, and was one of five Broncos to score 10 or more touchdowns in 2013.

Thomas nearly doubled the points Benjamin Watson, New England's top tight end in 2007, contributed to the Patriots in both Reception and Target NEP. But Watson wasn’t a slacker. Even if he didn’t get as many looks from Brady as Moss and Welker did, he was still efficient. Watson’s Reception NEP per target was the third-highest among tight ends in 2007, and his Success Rate ranked seventh.

The combo of Welker and Decker gave the Broncos’ passing offense, in terms of receiver play, a slight edge over the Patriots. Perhaps this makes Brady's play even that much more spectacular, as he didn't have the same types of weapons at his disposal compared to Manning in 2013.

Dual-Purpose Running Backs

The running back depth charts for Bill Belichick and John Fox were like a Swiss army knife, but Belichick relied more on a committee while Fox mainly used one back. Below is a table showing each of the team's running backs, as well as their Rushing Net Expected Points, Rushing Net Expected Points per rush and Success Rate totals from that season.

Rushing NEPRushing NEP per RushSuccess Rate
2007 Patriots
Kevin Faulk0.890.0152.38%
Laurence Maroney8.160.0449.73%
Sammy Morris9.010.1154.12%
2013 Broncos
Knowshon Moreno17.370.0742.56%
Montee Ball3.650.0350.42%

Essentially, as you can see, it took three backs for the Patriots to accomplish what one back accomplished for the Broncos. Laurence Maroney was the top back for the Patriots in 2007, and his 8.16 Rushing NEP was still only 17th best among running backs in 2007. He did see 185 attempts though, and his .04 Rushing NEP per rush, albeit above average, wasn't as outstanding as his 17th place finish indicates.

Really, the most effective back for the Patriots was actually Sammy Morris, despite limited touches, as Morris nearly tripled Maroney’s mark by rushing for 0.11 points per play. Perhaps some of this had to do with usage: late-down backs can benefit from seeing softer defenses, resulting in higher efficiency.

On the Broncos side, the revitalized Knowshon Moreno contributed only 0.70 less Rushing Net Expected Points than the Patriots running back committee, but was a little more efficient. Moreno was even better in the passing game, too. His 38.85 Target NEP not only doubled what the Patriots contributed out of the backfield, but was the highest among all running backs in 2013. Basically, when Manning looked Moreno's way through the air, Moreno was contributing positively for the Broncos.

Knowshon wasn’t alone though. Montee Ball was just icing on the cake for the Broncos in 2013, as he started to see more touches in the second half of the season. In the team's second game against the Chiefs, Ball had his first career 100-yard rushing game. While his overall Rushing NEP was only 3.65, Ball contributed nearly 16 Rushing Net Expected Points for the Broncos from Week 10 through the end of the season. To put that into perspective, only four runners were able to compiled a 16.00 Rushing NEP total across the entire season. Had Ball been so efficient (which includes his holding onto the football), it could've been a better season for the rook.

Overall, the Broncos actually used their running backs more than New England's 2007 team did, and even with higher volume, they were the more effective bunch. And thanks to Knowshon Moreno, the receiving metrics make the biggest difference between each team’s stable of running backs. The Broncos have a clear advantage in the backfield.

Teamwork, Not Individual Play

While we can dissect and compare the various offensive weapons of each team, a look at our Adjusted Offensive NEP metrics will show us the entire picture. Remember, each team's metrics have been adjusted to factor in the strength of the opponents; we're leveling the playing field so to speak. The next table not only shows the points contributed from the passing game and running game, but where each metric ranks since the 2000 season, just to give you an idea of how prolific these offenses were.

Adj. NEPRankAdj. PNEPRankAdj. RNEPRank
2007 Patriots276.241st246.172nd26.2963rd
2013 Broncos248.903rd251.541st-1.74178th

The Patriots have had the best single-season offense in the league since 2000. End of the debate, right?

Not just yet – there is even more we can dig into.

While the 2007 Patriots had the best overall offense, let’s break down the passing and running game for each team.

We see the Patriots had a much better time on the ground, contributing 26.29 Rush Net Expected Points over the course of their season. Though this is a little surprising considering we just showed how solid the Broncos runners were from an efficiency perspective, keep in mind this analyzes the entire rushing depth chart, and that strength of schedule is factored in. There's a chance that Denver benefited greatly from poor defenses in 2013.

The Broncos, however, gained their edge offensively in the passing game over the Patriots with a 5.37 NEP margin. Both passing offenses were historic though, as they rank as the first and second highest Pass NEP totals since 2000. This aligns with the fact that Denver had better receiving options, and although Tom Brady may have had the better season due to less options to throw to, the overall passing game for Denver was actually better.

In the end, the defense is really what separated these two teams, and even though neither won the Super Bowl, it was clear how that side of the ball made an impact on the Broncos during their big game compared to the Patriots. That's why, if these two teams were to face off against one another in some sort of weird, alternate universe, we'd expect the Patriots 2007 squad to outplay the Broncos in 2013 and win the ball game.

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