5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 9
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 9 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
There are so many potential stacks this week that it's hard to narrow it down to just five. Plus, after some big performances last week, certain stacks should be popular. The silver lining there is that no singular stack should be exorbitantly popular, which means we probably don't have to get too weird with things.
One stack that likely will be somewhat popular is Wilson to Graham after the Seattle Seahawks dropped 41 points on what was essentially an island game at 4:00 p.m. Eastern last week. Seattle is a 7-point favorite over Washington and own an implied total of 26 points. Washington is the toughest defense against boundary in terms of Target Success Rate but are 29th against tight ends by that measure.
Graham is averaging 3.0 red zone targets over the past three games, making him the only tight end with more than 1.7 in that span. As for Wilson, he's topped 26.36 FanDuel points in four of his past five games. Overall, Washington ranks a beatable 17th against the pass by our metrics, and the path of least resistance for Wilson is to his tight end this week.
New Orleans Saints
Brees' ceiling is concerning, but I'm finding there are more and more reasons to like him the deeper I dig. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 29th against the pass by our metrics and 23rd in passing fantasy points per attempt allowed to quarterbacks. Brees' New Orleans Saints have the second-highest implied total of the week at 28.75 points (trailing only Houston's 32.00 mark).
Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs this season, Brees ranks third in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and fourth in Success Rate, the percentage of drop backs resulting in positive points. That positive production meshes well with fantasy points over time, so this is shaping up to be a bounce back spot.
As for Thomas, he has a 25.3% target market share on the season and a 26.8% rate over the past five games. He also has 39% of the team's air yards, per AirYards.com. That ties him with DeAndre Hopkins for third among receivers and sits him behind only Antonio Brown (46%) and A.J. Green (44%). The Bucs are 25th in fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers, as well.
Carr's game log is dreadful, showing that he's only surpassed 15 FanDuel points once in five games (his 30.18-point eruption on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago). This week, his Oakland Raiders face a Miami Dolphins team that ranks 22nd against the pass and 7th against the rush, by our adjusted metrics. Miami sits 24th in passing fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, as well. Carr is just 15th among 33 qualified passers in per-drop back Passing NEP and Success Rate, but the matchup -- tough to run and easy to pass -- helps make up for that.
Crabtree has 27 targets over his past three games (10, 7, 10), and teammate Amari Cooper has 35 (6, 19, 10). Cooper, though, has just one red zone target in those three games, and Crabtree has had three. If you exclude Cooper's huge game in Week 7 -- which no, isn't really fair to do -- and Week 4 when Crabtree missed, Crabtree has an air yards market share edge of 38% to 28% in the games they've played together. All of this is to say that Crabtree is the better option and that he has a fantastic matchup against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in fantasy points per target to wide receivers.
Newton is priced down significantly but has an enticing matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. He hasn't been efficient by our metrics, but that's never been a reason to roster Newton in the past (plus, just one of their past five games have been at home, for what it's worth). Rather, the rushing upside is there. Newton has ran at least 7 times in five straight games (8, 7, 11, 9, 11).
The loss of Kelvin Benjamin should benefit Devin Funchess (who is $6,100), but an even sneakier stack would be to go with Dickson at tight end. Dickson has played 98% of snaps or more in each of the past six games and all 100% in five of them. His 15.2% market share in the past five games ranks him 14th among tight ends on the main slate, and now they have to fill the Benjamin void (he commanded 20.2% of the targets in the past five games).
This may be my favorite stack of the week because it opens a lot of salary for us and lets us get exposure to the Houston offense. Of course, we can't play Deshaun Watson ($9,600) in the same lineups where we have Brissett, but this game between Houston and Indianapolis has a total of 51.0 now, after opening at 48.0. The spread hasn't budged and is still 13.0, so that means Indy's total is up 1.5 points to 19.0. It's still thin, but Brissett will need to throw. That's not the right recipe for fantasy success necessarily, but that should help unlock some rushing upside, and Houston has allowed 6.17 yards per carry to quarterbacks (fifth-highest) and 2 rushing touchdowns.
As for Hilton, the Colts want to get him the ball more, which seems like a good idea considering how good he is. Hilton has a 22.1% market share on the season but just 19.8% over the past five games. He's still managed to account for 36% of their air yards and 39% over the past four weeks. Houston is 32nd in fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers. They do have Kevin Johnson and Johnathan Joseph back, which is concerning, but if the Colts do trail and if the Colts do make good on their interest in getting Hilton more looks, then he has tournament-winning upside at such a low price (just the second time he's been below $6,700 since the start of the 2015 season).