5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 8
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 8 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles are 13.0-point home favorites against the San Francisco 49ers, who rank 28th against the pass by our opponent-adjusted metrics. The 49ers are also 29th in adjusted yards per attempt and passing fantasy points per pass attempt allowed to quarterbacks. The Eagles did lose Jason Peters for the season, and that's no small loss, but the matchup is too good regardless. Perhaps the loss of Peters keeps the game a little closer and allows Wentz to continue throwing in such a good spot.
Ertz is the best stacking candidate with Wentz, as he leads the team with a 25.6% target market share and 58 targets in total. The Niners have allowed more than 6.0 FanDuel points to a tight end just once this season, but they haven't faced any tough options. Ertz has double-digit FanDuel points in every game this season, which is absurd given the tight end position.
Dalton is likely going to be a popular option, and Green should be really popular, given the Cincinnati Bengals' matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, who are last in pass defense by our metrics. Just in case you're not sold on Dalton, know that the Colts are 30th in adjusted yards per attempt and 25th in passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt. In Dalton's only matchup against a pass defense outside the top 20, he produced 28.34 fantasy points against the Cleveland Browns.
Green leads the league in deep target market share (passes traveling at least 16 yards downfield) and is second in air yards market share. Green has 6-plus targets in every game and 10-plus in three of six. But you can also consider stacking Dalton with LaFell, who is second in the league in red zone target market share. You read that correctly. In a game where Cincinnati should win and score points (25.75-point implied total), LaFell could turn a red zone look into a touchdown, which is basically all you need at such a low price.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Among 37 quarterbacks with at least 50 drop backs this season, Winston ranks first in Passing Success Rate, the percentage of drop backs that lead to positive expected points, according to our metrics. He's also fifth in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back and first in intended air yards per attempt. The Carolina Panthers are 12th in pass defense by our metrics and have a good pass rush, but the Panthers are just 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt and 24th in passing fantasy points per attempt allowed to quarterbacks. Only potentially heavy winds are cause for concern for Winston.
Evans has a red zone target in all but one game this season and has multiple red zone targets in half of his six games. He's fallen shy of 10 FanDuel points just once this season and is 12th in both target market share and red zone market share among all pass catchers.
On the other side of that game, we have Newton against the Bucs, who are 29th in adjusted yards per attempt allowed and in passing fantasy points per attempt. They also rank 29th by our metrics against the pass. Newton has 121 rushing yards over the past two games and has at least 7 rushes in four straight games.
Bucs are again without cornerbacks Brent Grimes (shoulder) and Robert McClain (concussion). Grimes was hopeful he’d be able to play Sunday.
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 26, 2017
That also helps.
As for the receivers, Funchess leads the Panthers in target market share, deep target market share, air yards market share, and red zone market share. Whew. Benjamin is right behind him, and he is also in play for just $100 more. Funchess and Benjamin practiced in full on Thursday, so both should be good to go.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the New England Patriots this week, but don't buy into the recent trends from the Pats' defense (12.7 points per game allowed over their past three). They've still allowed the 9th-most yards per game in that span and are 18th by our adjusted metrics even in those three games. At best, they're a mid-level defense based on the analytics.
Rivers has at least 14.32 FanDuel points in all but one game and has been about as steady as fantasy passers get. Plus, the only passer who failed to hit 300 yards against the Pats this season was Matt Ryan last week during the fog debacle, and he still managed 17.02 FanDuel points, the fewest a passer has produced against the Pats this season.
Henry has emerged as the lead tight end for the Chargers and has hit at least 8.6 FanDuel points in every game since Week 1. Henry has at least 73 yards or a touchdown in all five games since a donut in the opener. The Patriots are 25th in receiving fantasy points allowed per target to tight ends and just lost linebacker Dont'a Hightower for the rest of the season.