5 Vegas Betting Trends to Help Set Your Week 6 Daily Fantasy Football Lineup
It's no secret that Vegas totals and spreads can be helpful when making fantasy football decisions -- especially in daily fantasy games.
This week, for example, Ben Roethlisberger owners may want to stream Trevor Siemian because the Denver Broncos have a higher implied team total than the Pittsburgh Steelers. In this matchup, Siemian will almost certainly be higher-owned than Roethlisberger in DFS lineups, and the Vegas totals and spread will be a significant reason for that.
Unfortunately, as professional NFL handicapper Warren Sharp has pointed out, Vegas' primary goal is not to set the most accurate lines -- Vegas' goal is to make money, and they do that by encouraging public action on a particular side. What does that mean?
Let’s say Vegas opens the line on a game with Team X favored to beat Team Y by 7 points. If 80% of the public money coming in is in favor of Team X against the spread but Vegas still does not adjust the line, that demonstrates that either there is sharp money on Team Y or that Vegas feels confident about Team Y against the spread. Either way, by examining how Vegas is moving lines in comparison to where the public is betting, we can potentially gain an edge when making lineup decisions.
Green Bay Packers (-3.0) at Minnesota Vikings (O/U 46.5)
Betting Trends: After a comeback win against the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers take on their NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings. With Sam Bradford not expected to play, Case Keenum will take the reins for Minnesota. There is reverse line movement in this game -- even though the Packers are receiving 75% of spread tickets, the line has moved one point against them from an opener of -4.0 to the current -3.0. This may be due to the fact that since the Vikings began playing at U.S. Bank Stadium, they are the second-best home against-the-spread (ATS) team in the league.
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