5 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 6
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's Chris Raybon, a quarterback's top receiver has the strongest positive correlation to quarterback success -- and his tight end and second receiver are next in line.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being underowned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 6 on FanDuel's main slate, which excludes the Thursday and Monday games?
The obvious stacking candidate with Ryan is Julio Jones ($8,400), and with a good handful of passers in the mix for rosters, that stack probably wouldn't be significantly owned. The Atlanta Falcons host the Miami Dolphins as 11.5-point home favorites with an implied total of 29.25, highest of the weekend. Miami ranks 24th against the pass by our schedule-adjusted metrics and 2nd against the rush. The path to a big lead will come easiest through Matt Ryan.
Jones is top-12 in target market share in the past three games despite missing 80% of snaps in Week 4. Miami is the worst team against wideouts in terms of Target Success Rate. Jones is a firm play.
But the Dolphins are also sixth-worst against deep passes, and Taylor Gabriel played 80% of snaps last week while the Falcons played without Julio and Mohamed Sanu, who missed Thursday's practice. Gabriel has had four deep targets in four games, so he's not a bad bet for a big play on an otherwise popular offense.
In a similar situation, we should expect the Watson-and-DeAndre Hopkins ($8,000) stack to be significantly more popular than Watson-and-Fuller. Now, Fuller's touchdown rate (four scores on nine targets) won't stick around, but the Cleveland Browns are the worst defense in football by our metrics and are the second-most generous pass defense on deep passes. Fuller, who has played 80% and 92% of snaps in his two games, has 5 deep attempts. At just $6,000, he only needs a play or two on a team that has an implied total north of 28 points.
Watson has had 34 or more FanDuel points in two straight games and at least 17 in all contests. You can bank on regression moving forward, but against the Browns, what's the worst that happens? Cleveland has allowed 20.6 FanDuel points per game to quarterbacks, and Watson always has rushing upside and floor to consider.
You can always just pair him with Nuk and his 39.1% market share and differentiate elsewhere or go with Fuller or even Ryan Griffin ($4,500), a tight end against the Browns, who have given up 11.9 or more FanDuel points to a tight end four different times already this season.
Cousins will probably be a low-owned option with Watson just $100 more, but Washington is coming off a bye and has a 28.25-point total. The San Francisco 49ers are 26th against the pass by our metrics and are traveling across the country to play at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, which is the best time zone of all the time zones. Cousins has quietly (?) topped 20 FanDuel points the past two games (26.8 and 20.6), as well.
Nobody wants to play Pryor anymore, and his target total dipped from 11 in Week 1 to 4, 4, and 5 the following weeks, but he's played at least 73% of snaps in all four games and 84% or more in three of them. San Francisco is 22nd in Success Rate allowed to receivers, and they've allowed 21-plus FanDuel points to deep threats Sammy Watkins (13.3 yards in terms of average depth of target, per AirYards.com) and T.Y. Hilton (13.9) in two of the past three weeks, and Jaron Brown (15.6) had 14.5 points the week in between. Pryor's aDOT sits at 12.5, second on Washington behind only Josh Doctson (17.8), who has just 6 targets.
Speaking of players nobody wants to roster, Jordan Reed ($6,500) is a home favorite with a huge total, which could unlock his upside (and he's off the injury report). Oh, and Jamison Crowder ($5,400) is supposed to be more involved. Cousins is the constant here, and you can almost take your pick with the stacking partners, but Pryor probably has the best ownership/upside combo.
New Orleans Saints
This stack could go a little underowned because it's one of the few price-prohibitive pairings possible. Brees and the New Orleans Saints are coming off a bye against a Detroit Lions team that just allowed 355 yards and 3 touchdowns to Cam Newton. Drew Brees at home is better than Cam Newton on the road.
The line has also swung from 3.0 points in New Orleans' favor to 6.0 before settling back down around 4.5. Still, that's not a bad sign for the Saints, who own a 27.25-point total.
Thomas will go at Darius Slay, which is certainly not a boost, but Slay allowed 5 caches for 71 yards and 2 touchdowns (a 155.8 passer rating) last week. Thomas has a top-10 market share in the past three games, and the price alone -- with so many stud running backs and other stacks to consider -- could leave this pair a little bit underowned in Week 6.
Los Angeles Chargers
Rivers, Allen, and the Los Angeles Chargers face the Oakland Raiders this week. Oakland ranks 31st against the pass by our metrics, allowing 0.34 opponent-adjusted points per passing play. Cleveland is last at 0.35. Everyone will be playing Watson rather than Rivers, who has averaged 19.4 FanDuel points outside of a dud against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 3.
Allen, who has 9-plus targets in every game so far and a 27.1% market share in the past three games, has 29.2% of their red zone targets.
I also think that Tyrell Williams ($6,200) is in play, despite the likely debut of rookie Mike Williams. Oakland is the fourth-worst team defending deep passes, by our metrics, and Williams has seven deep targets on the season.