NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 8

Find out who Chief Analyst Keith Goldner thinks you should pick this week to keep on moving on to Week 9.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 8

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Patriots Scaring People Again

Another scary game for anyone who picked the Patriots; instead of dominating a weak Jets team, they took the game to overtime before eking out the win. All four of our top picks in Week 7 won, the safest of which was probably the Chicago Bears on Monday Night. If you are still alive in your pool or if you’re in a pool with multiple strikes, keep on reading. If you’re like most of America and have been eliminated already, feel free to buy another round on your winnings from numberFire's Premium Product.

Week 8's Top Picks

UPDATE (10/24): With the Green Bay/Jacksonville lines finally out, Green Bay actually becomes the top pick of the week at 86.0% chance to win. Even as the second-most picked team, their adjusted win odds drop to only 80.77%, well above that of the Bears.

Chicago over Carolina (69.4% Win Probability)
The Bears are downright nasty on defense where they rank as the top team in the NFC. Chicago prevents close to nine points per game from being scored that a league-average defense would allow – best in the league. Carolina, on the other hand, is 1-5 with a league-average offense. Briggs and company should give Camuel Newton fits.

Pittsburgh over Washington (67.8% Win Probability)
Tough to bet against RGIII when he’s played so well already in 2012. The Redskins quarterback has been successful on more than two-thirds of his running attempts and has added over 42 points to the Skins offense on the ground alone. Unfortunately, he’s heading into Pittsburgh where Big Ben is playing at the top of his game. Roethlisberger leads the AFC’s No. 4 offense against a banged up Skins defense in Week 8.

San Francisco over Arizona (66.1% Win Probability)
The Cardinals are who we thought they were. Not very good. While their defense still ranks No. 3 in the league, their offense ranks second-to-last, better only than the Brady Quinn-led Chiefs. The 49ers defense should have a field day against John Skelton.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. San Diego Chargers over Cleveland Browns (30.9%)
2. Green Bay Packers over Jacksonville Jaguars (17.2%)
3. New England Patriots over St. Louis Rams (8.8%)

Who to pick:
Chicago Bears (67.05% adjusted win odds)

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

This Week Adjusted Win Odds
Chicago 67.1%
Denver 64.5%
Pittsburgh 64.4%
San Francisco 63.3%
New England 59.4%
Minnesota 59.1%
Cleveland 58.7%
Miami 57.6%
Green Bay 52.8%
Tennessee 51.8%
Detroit 51.6%
Dallas 51.6%
Philadelphia 51.4%
Kansas City 51.2%
Oakland 48.8%
Atlanta 48.6%
New York Giants 48.4%
Seattle 48.4%
Indianapolis 48.2%
Jacksonville 47.2%
New York Jets 42.4%
San Diego 41.3%
Tampa Bay 40.9%
St. Louis 40.6%
Arizona 36.5%
Washington 35.6%
New Orleans 35.5%
Carolina 33.0%