The Jacksonville Jaguars have a quarterback problem.
They've actually had one for some time, but it's only being publicly realized now, as head coach Doug Marrone said last night that the team's starting quarterback job is up for grabs.
So it's Blake Bortles versus Chad Henne, not just Blake Bortles.
What a world.
What's this all mean? How does it impact the Jags' offense, but more importantly, should it change the way we view top wide receiver Allen Robinson in fantasy football?
Let's dig in, I guess. (I can't believe I have to write about Blake Bortles and Chad Henne.)
Bortles' Not-as-Magical 2015
There's no doubt that Blake Bortles showed some signs of being a competent NFL starting quarterback in 2015, having thrown 35 touchdowns and over 4,400 yards across the season. Traditional statistics don't tell us enough, though. Not all yards gained are alike, not all touchdowns are alike, and certainly not all interceptions are alike.
Enter AirYards.com, Robinson actually only saw 271 fewer air yards on all targets (not just completed passes) from 2015 to 2016. He just wasn't able to do as much with them because, well, Bortles was bad.
Is Henne an Upgrade?
Pre-Bortles, Chad Henne was getting a lot of run for Jacksonville under center. During 2012 and 2013, he threw the ball 308 and 503 times, respectively, so we've got some sort of sample size to work off of here.
| Year | Air Yards | % Air Yards | Air Yards Per Attempt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 1,182 | 56.72% | 3.84 |
| 2013 | 1,378 | 42.52% | 2.74 |
Overall, his air yards on completed passes numbers look pretty similar to Bortles' non-2015 campaigns. But to give some love to Henne, he was working with receivers like Justin Blackmon (pour some out) and Cecil Shorts. We don't need data to show that he was (arguably) working with less.
And the NFL has also increasingly become more passer-friendly, which should help Bortles' numbers.
The piece that we should be more interested in is how Henne fared throwing the rock deep, because when that was going for Bortles, things were solid for Robinson, too.
| 15+ Yd Att | 15+ Yd Att % | 15+ Comp % | 15+ Yd Yds | 15+ % of Tot Yds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 56 | 18.18% | 37.50% | 609 | 29.22% |
| 2013 | 64 | 12.72% | 35.94% | 629 | 19.41% |
When Henne was quarterbacking the Jags in 2012 and 2013, he was throwing the ball deep at a less frequent rate than Bortles has over the last few years, but he was more accurate on those tosses.
And that, I think, could be key here. Jacksonville went out and drafted Leonard Fournette with the fourth overall pick a few months back, and Doug Marrone said this offseason that he wants to run the ball on every play. An exaggerated statement, yes, but it also shows us what Jacksonville is very clearly trying to do: play strong defense (per their offseason moves the last few years) and run the football (per the Fournette pick).
So if that's the case, volume may have been limited to begin with. In turn, A-Rob's best path to a successful fantasy football season would be with the most accurate passer the team can find.
And given the data and the trajectory Bortles has gone down, that passer honestly might be Chad Henne.