NFL
No, Tom Brady Isn't the NFL's MVP
Tom Brady's certainly turning his season around, but he's still not close to an MVP.

Googling “Tom Brady MVP” gives you two different types of articles. The first, quite obviously, are columns that argue for ProFootballFocus.com ranks New England as having the 15th-best in terms of pass blocking, as San Diego sits at 25.

Forget the records of New England and San Diego, just for a second. Now ask yourself, “Does Tom Brady’s lack of weapons compared to Philip Rivers make up for his huge disparity in quarterback effectiveness this year?”

If you answered yes, then you must have an irrational love for Number 12.

Why Are Their Records Different?

Winning matters to people, and being a winning quarterback certainly matters to MVP voters.

And Tom Brady has more wins than Philip Rivers this season. Since I’ve been dealing with data prior to Week 15, Tom Brady’s team has won four more games than Philip Rivers’ (though that's just three, in reality, right now). That’s substantial.

This type of analysis is typically my biggest complaint about an MVP award. We all know that football is the ultimate team game, so why do we put such an emphasis on player (especially quarterback) wins?

The short answer is that, in order to be viewed as valuable, your team has to win. And San Diego, despite Philip Rivers’ play, is not a winning team (remember, I’m referring to before their Week 15 win.)

I just find it interesting that folks are making the excuse, “But the season isn’t over yet – Tom Brady can come back and win this [MVP] thing.” Meanwhile, those same people are writing Philip Rivers’ Chargers completely off. What gives?

No, the Chargers chances of making the playoffs aren’t high. But it’s not because of Philip Rivers.

The defensive side of the ball is drastically different for these two quarterbacks, and if not for this inequality, perhaps we’d be singing a different MVP tune.

According to the numbers, entering Week 15, New England had the 13th-best defense in the NFL, scoring an Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points total of 10.92. San Diego, on the other hand, ranked 31st, scoring 111.25 under that same metric.

What do these numbers tell us? Well, essentially, New England should have allowed 11 fewer points than they have this year. That’s a fairly insignificant number when you consider that’s across the 13 games analyzed; less than one point per game.

The Chargers have given up 111.25 more points than they should have this season. 111 points, you guys. Divide that by 13, and you’re talking 8.54 points per game.

Do you know how many of the Chargers seven losses were by 8 or less points? Six of them. Every single loss outside of their Week 5 game against Oakland saw the opposing team winning by 1-8 points.

Throw the Chargers defense in New England and see what you get. Here’s your answer: A Patriots team that’s not in the same position as they are today. Not even close.

Tom Brady Doesn’t Deserve the MVP.

Yes, I will firmly say and conclude that Philip Rivers is having the far superior season compared to Brady. And while I don’t think Rivers deserves to win MVP (Peyton Manning should, clearly), I think the comparison of Rivers to Brady should shed light as to why we shouldn’t be putting Brady in the same conversation as a player like Peyton. Or, in my opinion, even a player like Drew Brees.

Brady’s had an unbelievable career and is one of the best passers of all time. This year, though? This year he’s in a group with great passers – passers who will make Pro Bowls, and, perhaps, win a Super Bowl.

He’s just not the MVP.

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