NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 7

Ah ah ah ah Staying Alive. Find out who Chief Analyst Keith Goldner thinks you should pick this week to keep boogying on to Week 8.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 7

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

My Poor Birds

I don’t want to talk about the Eagles losing last week to Detroit because it’s only going to make me mad. Philly led by 10 points with five minutes to go. That equates to a 94% chance of winning the game. A Detroit score and an unbelievably quick Eagles’ three-and-out later (Michael Vick couldn’t lob the ball to a wide open Jeremy Maclin), the Lions would come back and win the game in overtime. We said to stay away from the second-most picked Pittsburgh Steelers who fell to the Titans. The Falcons were the most picked team and won on a game-winning 50+ yard field goal—too close for comfort. If you are still alive in your pool or if you’re in a pool with multiple strikes, keep on reading. If you’re like most of America and have been eliminated already, feel free to buy another round on your winnings from numberFire's Premium Product.

Week 7's Top Picks

New England over New York Jets (79.3% Win Probability)
The Patriots have made a habit of losing bad games this year, most recently dropping to Seattle in the closing seconds. Don’t expect Tom Brady and the AFC’s top offense to show any mercy playing divisional-rival New York at home. Every team in the AFC East is tied at 3-3 right now, so this game has large playoff implications already.

Minnesota over Arizona (75.2% Win Probability)
Despite their 4-0 start, the Cardinals have revealed their true mediocre colors. In fact, the Cardinals have scored almost 35 fewer points than a league-average offense would if put in similar situations. The Vikings are not a phenomenal team and they lost a tough one in Washington last week, but as long as Christian Ponder takes care of the ball, Minnesota should win easily.

Chicago over Detroit (73.6% Win Probability)
The Bears are coming off their bye week and have another big division game against Detroit. Matthew Stafford led a miracle comeback against the Eagles last week as mentioned. Chicago still owns the league’s top rated defense after adjusting for strength of opponents – a defense that has prevented 45 points from being scored that a league-average team would have allowed.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks (24.0%) 2. Green Bay Packers over St. Louis Rams (23.5%) 3. New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9.3%)

Who to pick:
New England Patriots (76.72% adjusted win odds)
If you already picked the Patriots, which many have, the next best options would be Minnesota and then Chicago. I also like the Giants at home against Washington. All four of those adjusted win odds are within 8% of one another.

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

This Week Adjusted Win Odds
New England 76.7%
Minnesota 74.9%
Chicago 73.1%
New York Giants 69.2%
Buffalo 64.6%
Oakland 64.4%
Dallas 62.4%
Tampa Bay 59.1%
Pittsburgh 54.9%
Indianapolis 54.8%
San Francisco 54.7%
Houston 53.7%
St. Louis 50.3%
Green Bay 49.7%
Baltimore 46.3%
Seattle 45.3%
Cleveland 45.2%
Cincinnati 45.1%
New Orleans 40.9%
Carolina 37.6%
Jacksonville 35.6%
Tennessee 35.4%
Washington 30.9%
Detroit 26.9%
Arizona 25.1%
New York Jets 23.3%