NFL

Why Is LeGarrette Blount Still a Free Agent?

Blount led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last season, but there hasn't been a rush to sign him. Is that a mistake, or are teams taking the right approach?

The market for running backs in the NFL may be at an all-time low. Perennial stars like Adrian Peterson and Jamaal Charles spent weeks on the free-agent market before being signed. Teams are unwilling to spend a large portion of their payroll on the position.

LeGarrette Blount is a prime example of the current running back market -- or lack thereof. Blount is the first running back to rush for 18 touchdowns in a season since Peterson did it in 2009, and he is one of only 10 running backs to rush for 18 or more touchdowns in a season since 2000. So why is the bruiser still looking for a gig?

Contract Situation

The Patriots, who tend to be trailblazers for many things in the NFL, used a rare unrestricted free agent tender on Blount. This tender hasn't been used in 17 years.

From NESN: "The tender is a one-year deal worth $1.1 million, or 110 percent of Blount’s 2016 salary. If Blount signs with a team before July 22, the tender means he counts against that team’s and towards the Patriots’ compensatory draft pick formula, which could make another squad hesitant to add him. Unrestricted free agents who sign with teams after May 9 don’t count in the comp pick formula when not tendered. If Blount doesn’t sign with another team before July 22, then he only can sign with the Patriots from then until November."

But those aren't the only numbers making teams nervous.

Let's Be Blount

I previously noted how Blount was one of only 10 running backs to score 18 or more rushing touchdowns in a season since the turn of the millennium. That may sound impressive, but some basic stats and some advanced analytics tell us he was just about the worst of those 10.

Blount ranked last in rushing yards, yards per carry, and total Net Expected Points. Only Peterson's 2009 season was statistically worse on a per-play basis.

Running Back Year Age Rushing Attempts Rushing Yards Rushing Touchdowns Yards Per Carry Total NEP Rushing NEP Per Play
Marshall Faulk 2000 27 253 1359 18 5.37 121.05 0.2
Priest Holmes 2002 29 313 1615 21 5.16 91.40 0.17
Priest Holmes 2003 30 320 1420 27 4.44 88.80 0.16
LaDainian Tomlinson 2005 26 339 1462 18 4.31 37.41 0.05
Larry Johnson 2005 26 336 1750 20 5.21 64.29 0.12
Shaun Alexander 2005 28 370 1880 27 5.08 69.87 0.18
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006 27 348 1815 28 5.22 103.24 0.17
DeAngelo Williams 2008 25 273 1515 18 5.55 54.56 0.18
Adrian Peterson 2009 24 314 1383 18 4.4 5.73 -0.04
LeGarrette Blount 2016 30 299 1161 18 3.88 1.47 0.00


If we expand the list to any running back who scored 15 touchdowns or more in a season since 2000, Blount finished 26th of 28 players in total rushing yards and 27th of 28 in yards per carry, demonstrating his inflated touchdown number was a bit fluky.

Forget the past -- how did Blount rank among players in 2016?

I took a look at his counterparts who had 150 or more carries. Out of those 27, Blount ranked 19th in Total Net Expected Points, finishing behind the likes of Terrance West, Ryan Mathews, and Frank Gore. Blount's lack of use in the receiving game hurt his overall NEP numbers, but even using Rushing NEP only, he ranked 12th out of 27, relatively average stuff.

Age Against the Machine

And then there's that whole 30-years-old thing. According to Pro Football Reference, since 2000, only 11 running backs who were 30 or older have carried the ball 299 or more times in a season. And aside from Curtis Martin and Lamar Smith, those thirtysomethings performed even worse in the following year. The first table looks at rushing attempts.

Name Year Age Rushing Attempts that Season Rushing Attempts in Following Season Change +/-
Lamar Smith 2000 30 309 313 4
Lamar Smith 2001 31 313 209 -104
Curtis Martin 2003 30 323 371 48
Priest Holmes 2003 30 320 196 -124
Eddie George 2003 30 312 132 -180
Curtis Martin 2004 31 371 220 -151
Corey Dillon 2004 30 345 209 -136
Tiki Barber 2005 30 357 327 -30
Tiki Barber 2006 31 327 Retirement N/A
Thomas Jones 2009 31 331 245 -86
Adrian Peterson
2015 30 327 37 -290


Next, we'll look at the change in rushing yards.

Name Year Age Rushing Yards that Season Rushing Yards in Following Season Change +/-
Lamar Smith 2000 30 1139 968 -171
Lamar Smith 2001 31 968 737 -231
Curtis Martin 2003 30 1308 1697 389
Priest Holmes 2003 30 1420 892 -528
Eddie George 2003 30 1031 432 -599
Curtis Martin 2004 31 1697 735 -962
Corey Dillon 2004 30 1635 733 -902
Tiki Barber 2005 30 1860 1662 -198
Tiki Barber 2006 31 1662 Retirement N/A
Thomas Jones 2009 31 1402 896 -506
Adrian Peterson 2015 30 1485 72 -1413


To be fair to Blount, he has fewer career carries than most players on these lists, but it is unlikely that he will get near this amount of carries, yards, and touchdowns ever again.

What's the Scenario?

The Patriots signed running backs Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee in the offseason, adding them to a crowded backfield that already includes Dion Lewis and James White. If Blount were to sign somewhere before that July 22 deadline, he would likely fall into some sort of timeshare on an offense less talented than the Pats. If he remains unsigned through the deadline, he could only play for the Patriots and would be one of five running backs vying for carries.

The NFL is a passing league, and Blount rarely contributes as a receiver. At age 30, coming off of a high-usage season during which he was distinctly average -- inflated touchdown total notwithstanding -- teams have good reason to pass on Blount.