NFL Survivor Pool Best Bets: Week 6

E-A-G-L-E-S-Equity Maximizing-Pick! Check out why Chief Analyst Keith Goldner thinks the Bird's the Word this weekend.

I’m A Survivor: Maximize Your Winnings Week 6

Most people, when picking for their eliminator pool, just pick the team with the best chance to win that week. The best way to maximize your chances of winning, however, is to make a decision based on what teams other people are picking. If 75% of the population is picking the top game, you stand to gain from picking the second best option. That way, even though both teams are likely to win, if the top team is upset (see: Patriots, Week 2), 75% of the pool has been eliminated and you are still standing. Using every possible combination of game outcomes for the week (65,000+), we tell you who maximizes your potential gains.

Another Winning Week

After the crazy start to the year, things are finally starting to make sense. Eight of our top nine equity-maximizing picks won in Week 5, including our top pick, Minnesota. Most people picked the Giants over the Browns and were sweating during the first half, but three Victor Cruz TDs and 200 Ahmad Bradshaw rushing yards later, the Giants easily secured victory. If you are still alive in your pool or if you’re in a pool with multiple strikes, keep on reading. If you’re like most of America and have been eliminated already, feel free to buy another round on your winnings from numberFire's Premium Product.

Week 6's Top Picks

Atlanta over Oakland (75.2% Win Probability)
The Atlanta Falcons remain undefeated after a close victory in Washington. This week, they face the league’s worst opponent-adjusted defense, the Oakland Raiders. Even though they are coming off their bye week, the Raiders have already allowed more than 52 points that a league-average defense would have prevented.

Philadelphia over Detroit (66.9% Win Probability)
The Eagles had a tough loss in Pittsburgh this week, losing on a last second field goal. If it weren’t for a few crucial Michael Vick turnovers, including a fumble into the end zone, the Eagles could be sitting alone atop the NFC East. This week they face Detroit who owns the league’s No. 28 opponent-adjusted defense. If the Eagles can’t get their offense going this week, they may never.

Arizona over Buffalo (66.2% Win Probability)
The Rams took down undefeated Arizona last week, but the Cardinals will have a chance to bounce back against the Bills at home. While their offense is below league-average, they own the No. 2 defense in the league having prevented close to four touchdowns from being scored so far in 2012.

This week’s most picked teams:
1. Atlanta Falcons over Oakland Raiders (31.7%)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers over Tennessee Titans (20.5%)
3. New York Jets over Indianapolis Colts (13.1%)

Who to pick:
Philadelphia Eagles (66.6% adjusted win odds)

Full Adjusted Win Odds (Based on population picks)

This Week Adjusted Win Odds
Philadelphia 66.6%
Miami 65.6%
Arizona 65.5%
San Francisco 64.3%
Houston 61.4%
Baltimore 60.4%
Atlanta* 59.6%
Denver 57.4%
Indianapolis 56.7%
New England 55.5%
Tampa Bay 54.5%
Washington 53.5%
Cincinnati 52.1%
Pittsburgh 50.1%
Tennessee 49.9%
Cleveland 48.0%
Minnesota 46.5%
Kansas City 45.2%
Seattle 44.5%
New York Jets 43.4%
San Diego 42.6%
Oakland 40.4%
Dallas 39.6%
Green Bay 38.6%
New York Giants 35.7%
Buffalo 34.6%
St. Louis 34.4%
Detroit 33.4%

*Despite being the heaviest favorite this week, the Falcons are still a fairly good option, only 7.0% adjusted win odds below the top pick.