Top 4 Fantasy One-Hit Wonders from Week 5
The Bills defense? It always seems to be the Bills defense. They're letting everybody out.
These are the guys that may look pretty, but in the end, will have about as much success as the Baha Men. If you're thinking about picking them up this week, turn right back around and put them back down.
Four Fantasy Football Week 5 One-Hit Wonders
RB Shaun Draughn - Kansas City Chiefs
Week 5 Fantasy Points: 4
Week 6 Projected Points: 3.91 (#34 RB)
Leagues Owned: 4.3%
With Peyton Hillis out, Shaun Draughn is finally getting some carries. This past week, he had 12 rushing attempts, and he has never had less than four in a game even with Hillis in the lineup. He also has 13 targets on the season and has caught 11 of them for an 85% catch rate. And there is every single conceivable argument you could make to pick up Draughn. Convinced yet?
You're not? Good, Mr. or Ms. Smart Fantasy Player, because you shouldn't be. Those 12 carries were still 18 less than Jamaal Charles on Sunday and were only 24% of the Chiefs' total carries, indicating that Draughn is nowhere near the lead back for this team. Those 13 targets that look so nice? That's only sixth on Kansas City, and it averages to be only 2.6 targets per game. The Chiefs will be facing some easier defenses coming up, with Tampa Bay this week and Oakland after the bye, but I'm not convinced that they will be enough to get two Chiefs backs over the double-digit fantasy point mark. Until he has at least one double-digit FP game, ignore the high carries total and keep him off your team.
WR Josh Gordon - Cleveland Browns
Week 5 Fantasy Points: 20
Week 6 Projected Points: 3.18 (#66 WR)
Leagues Owned: 0.3%
Calling me a hypocrite? Well, maybe. I had Gordon as one of my deep sleepers to watch in week 5, and I even singled him out in the numberFire week 5 roundtable as my under-the-radar player. So shouldn't I be dancing like one of the Baha Men for my victory? Well I am, because I am well versed in Baha Men-ese. But my awesome dance moves does not necessarily mean that the numbers like Josh Gordon moving forward.
First off, I liked him for this past week primarily because of Mohammed Massaquoi's injury. Guess who has a possibility to come back in week 6? Mr. Massaquoi. But even then, Greg Little did not record a single catch on Sunday, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could take over his starting role opposite Massaquoi when he returns from injury. But even then, I don't like Gordon as a pick up this week. For one, his catch rate of 25% in week 5 inspires absolutely zero confidence; his 42% catch rate on the season is nearly identical to the 41% rate that has caused Cleveland to go up in arms against Little. Second, the Giants were an excellent matchup for him to pick up stats. The Colts and Bengals are right around the same level in opponent-adjusted defense, but those games are less likely to be the shootouts than the Giants game. Third, do you really trust Brandon Weeden? His -4.42 NEP passing is the third-worst in the league, only ahead of Blaine Gabbert and Matt Hasselbeck. When he's had fantasy success, it's only because of a large amount of passes, and I would not trust that every single week.
WR Randall Cobb - Green Bay Packers
Week 5 Fantasy Points: 14
Week 6 Projected Points: 3.59 (#62 WR)
Leagues Owned: 28.8%
I have now been with numberFire for about three months. In that time, I have learned three distinct lessons.
1. When you suggest Brian Hartline or Kendall Wright to pick up on waivers, people will never listen to you.
2. No matter how hard Sean tries, he will never be able to convince you that Randy Moss is a viable fantasy option.
3. Packers receivers are the new Shanahan running backs. Think you have a bead on where Aaron Rodgers is going to throw? Just give up.
Once again, I learned that third point the hard way on Sunday, as Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley do absolutely nothing, but James Jones and Randall Cobb each go off for double-digit fantasy point days. I'm done talking about Jones (for now), seeing as how I have requested him as a "sit" two straight weeks, and two straight weeks he has caught 2 Aaron Rodgers TD passes despite being only targeted 20% of the time. He's being paid off for good karma, I'm convinced. But that does not mean I'm giving up on railing against Cobb. His four targets on Sunday were tied for fourth on the team, behind Jones, Nelson, and Finley, and tied with backup tight end D.J. Williams. In the past four games, he has finished in the top three of Packers targets exactly once: week 4 against New Orleans, when he finished second on the team with eight. Until he has another double-digit target game like he had week one against San Francisco (not likely), I don't trust him, even with his two high-fantasy point weeks.
TE Jeff Cumberland - New York Jets
Week 5 Fantasy Points: 11
Week 6 Projected Points: 1.08 (#51 TE)
Leagues Owned: 0.1%
One of my favorite stats of the week: Jeff Cumberland had as many fantasy points in week 5 as Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Jermichael Finley, and Martellus Bennett combined. Those tight ends, by the way, were each started in over 60% of ESPN leagues this past week, and were five of the top seven most-started tight ends (with Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis being the others). I love fantasy football, don't you?
I know the line about how a "tight end is a bad QB's best friend", and it looks like there's nobody else to throw to in that Jets offense with Holmes now gone. Does that mean that Cumberland's a solid pickup moving forward? Not even close. For one, it's likely that he's not even going to be the starter; remember, Dustin Keller comes back from injury soon. Even if Cumberland does see a significant amount of playing time, though, he's not likely to become Aaron Hernandez to Keller's Gronkowski. Cumberland's 54% catch rate is one of the worst among all tight ends with at least ten receptions, and it ranks fourth among Jets players with at least 10 targets (only Stephen Hill's dreadful 33% rate and Bilal Powell's gag-inducing 20% rate are worse). This past week, you would expect Cumberland to shine with Holmes, Hill, and Keller sidelined. However, he only had four targets, tied for third on the team behind Kerley and Schillens. And although the schedule must get easier than the #1 defense Texans, it doesn't get much easier. Of the Jets' next seven games, six are against teams in the top half of numberFire's opponent-adjusted defensive rankings. Even if you're frustrated with Graham or Pitta or Witten, stay far, far away.