4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 16
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's TJ Hernandez, a quarterback's top receiver has a moderately strong correlation to the quarterback's performance -- and his tight end and second receiver aren't too far behind.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being under-owned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 16 on FanDuel's main slate?
New Orleans Saints
Everyone is going to be on the New Orleans Saints at home this week, despite a tough matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank second against the pass since Week 8 by our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. Tampa is 28th against the run, and that should lead to a run-heavy approach from the Saints, but that's unlikely, as the Saints rank 4th in pass-to-run ratio.
But you can avoid some of the ownership concerns here by targeting Snead rather than Brandin Cooks ($7,100) or Michael Thomas ($6,900). Cooks had the monstrous game last week with 8 targets, 7 catches, 186 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Thomas had 7 catches on 10 targets for 52 yards.
Snead, the cheapest of the bunch by a good margin, actually led the team in targets with 11 (he caught 8 of them for 76 yards) last week. He also led the trio in snap rate with 87% to Thomas' 81% and Cooks' 77%.
The Seattle Seahawks own an implied total of 25.5 points, which is fifth-highest of the 24 teams on the main slate this week. The Arizona Cardinals are just 22nd by NEP against the pass from Week 8 onward and are eliminated from the playoffs. Seattle sure isn't.
The league average Passing NEP per drop back is 0.12. The reason that's important? Wilson's rate is 0.24 at home but -0.01 on the road. The league-average Success Rate (the percentage of drop backs that lead to NEP gains) is 46.89%. At home, Wilson's is 52.99%. On the road, it's about average at 46.42%.
Baldwin has been fairly pedestrian in recent weeks with 12 FanDuel points last week, 7.6 the week before, then 10 and 6.9. His target market share is just 23.76% in his past three games, but he's averaged 8 looks per game in that span. He'll be able to avoid the coverage of Patrick Peterson a bit, as he's primarily a slot receiver. With the high implied total and low salaries, this stack looks pretty sturdy in Week 16.
It's a lot more palatable to stack Newton with Greg Olsen and shore up tight end this week, but Ginn is certainly viable in a large-field tournament at his price. Ginn -- despite playing 44% of snaps in Week 15 -- has had a pretty solid role, with 62%, 69%, and 63% of snaps in the three weeks prior. That's led to 14.4, 3.6, 17.1, and 20.8 FanDuel points in his past four games with a pretty healthy target share: 8, 4, 6, and 10 in his past four games.
Among receivers with at least 40 catches, Ginn ranks 11th in receiving yards at the catch per reception, and the Atlanta Falcons rank 26th against the pass by our metrics from Week 8 on. Since losing Desmond Trufant, the Falcons have let up just 12 pass plays of 20 or more yards, third fewest in the league, so I don't want to overstate this matchup. Still, at just $4,800, you don't need multiple big plays from Ginn, who leads the Carolina Panthers' receivers in target market share in his past five games.
Savage came in for Brock Osweiler in Week 15 and led the team to a win, if you can call it that. He didn’t throw for any touchdowns but was competent against a pretty strong pass defense. The Jacksonville Jaguars entered the week ranked 16th over the full year by our metrics against the pass and 12th from Week 8 onward.
Savage threw 36 times, completing 23. More importantly for stacking purposes: he threw 42% of his attempts to Hopkins. When Savage entered the game, Hopkins had two targets and no catches. He finished the day with 15 targets, 8 catches, and 87 yards.
His 17 targets were the most in a game this year, and the 15 alone from Savage would have tied a season-high. The 87 yards were his second-most (he’s topped 60 just four times).
The Cincinnati Bengals are seventh against the pass by our metrics since Week 8, but they are eliminated from playoff contention. A dozen or more targets for a player of Hopkins' caliber at this price is enticing, and Savage wouldn't need to do much else at his salary to hit value.