4 NFL FanDuel Stacks for Week 15
If you're new to daily fantasy football, then you'll have to make some changes to your fantasy football strategy. You don't have "your guys" on a weekly basis -- and you need to adjust to each and every matchup.
A big part of building your roster is weekly quarterback selection. In terms of salary, passers range from the top of the player pool to the bottom, with some replacement-level passers at the same price point as kickers and defenses on FanDuel.
Along with those quarterbacks, though, you have the option of pairing pass-catchers with your signal caller, and per 4for4's TJ Hernandez, a quarterback's top receiver has a moderately strong correlation to the quarterback's performance -- and his tight end and second receiver aren't too far behind.
If you're going to stack, though, you need to have a purpose. If you're trying to win a big tournament, you'll want to find a combination that can put up points in bunches -- all while possibly being under-owned. Which teammates might fit the bill in Week 15 on FanDuel's main slate?
Green Bay Packers
QB: Aaron Rodgers ($8,500)
WR: Jordy Nelson ($7,700)
If we're looking at just the main slate -- and we are -- there really aren't many quarterbacks in the upper price range who have stellar matchups. Drew Brees ($8,200) plays the Arizona Cardinals on the road, Tom Brady ($8,100) goes on the road to face the Denver Broncos, who are the toughest pass defense in football, and Andrew Luck ($8,100) takes on the Minnesota Vikings on the road. That lets us get a little creative with our stacks this week.
Rodgers is tied with Matt Ryan at $8,500 for the most expensive quarterback on FanDuel's main slate, and he gets a decent matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Bears, according to our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, are 18th against the pass since Week 8 and on the year. They are 11th against fantasy quarterbacks, however. Still, Rodgers stacks well with Nelson, who leads the league in red zone targets by a significant margin. His 26 red zone looks are 7 more than any other player so far.
The forecast for Chicago calls for temperatures in the single digits and winds around 15 miles per hour, so keep that in mind when building lineups.
Atlanta Falcons
QB: Matt Ryan ($8,500)
WR: Taylor Gabriel ($5,800)
Ryan is in a good -- but not great -- spot this week against the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are a wretched run defense, 31st on the year and 29th since Week 8 by our metrics, and the Atlanta Falcons are 13.5-point favorites at home. That sets up for a great run game this week. Of course, that suggests the passing attack will be a little underowned, despite the 32.25-point implied team total.
Ryan could get Julio Jones back, but as a big favorite, the Falcons won't need to force him into anything. If he does play, he could draw attention from Gabriel, who has at least five targets in his past five games. He's managed to turn that into 15.4 FanDuel points -- and it's 15.22 if you go back another week when he saw just 3 targets.
Despite their deserved reputation as being a terrible run defense, the 49ers actually rank worse against the pass since Week 8. If everyone is looking to Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, Ryan and the Falcons' passing offense make for a good tournament stack.
Denver Broncos
QB: Trevor Siemian ($6,600)
WR: Demaryius Thomas ($6,700)
You can also go with Emmanuel Sanders ($6,600) here, but the point is that the New England Patriots have been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 26th by our metrics since Week 8. They're 13th against the run in that stretch. They're 19th against fantasy quarterbacks on the year and have allowed an average of 20.72 FanDuel points to the past four quarterbacks they've faced who weren't Jared Goff, a list that comprises Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Joe Flacco.
Sanders has a 29.12% target market share in his past five games, fifth-most among receivers. Thomas sits in fourth at 30.22%. Sanders holds a slight edge (17 to 16) in red zone targets and in targets from inside the 10 (11 to 9) over Thomas, but after having scored a touchdown last week, he might carry higher ownership than Thomas.
Baltimore Ravens
QB: Joe Flacco ($7,400)
WR: Mike Wallace ($5,900)
In his past five games, Wallace has seen just 16.35% of the Baltimore Ravens' targets, but that's okay. He's in the spotlight because of his big-play ability against the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia has ranked 30th against the pass by NEP since Week 8. According to Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, they also have allowed 19% of completions to go for 20 or more yards, the most in the NFL.
Flacco has just 22 plays of 25 yards or more, which ranks 15th in the NFL, and Wallace ranks a modest 18th in receiving yards at the catch per reception among receivers with at least 50 catches at 8.71. However, even without the big play, this pass defense is vulnerable, and Wallace helps save salary this week, while Flacco should be off the radar despite averaging 20 FanDuel points in his past six games. Just be mindful of the weather in this game before locking in this stack.
