Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tuesday 11/29/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire struggling w kaep vs Stafford this week. I've been waiting all year for Det vs NO shootout. But kaep upside is undeniable.
— ErikMill (@erikj2280) November 29, 2016
You made a good point about Kaepernick's upside. We project him to score between 11.29 and 28.07 points. Stafford, though, isn't far behind, with a range of 11.81 to 27.23. That gives him a lower ceiling but a slightly higher floor.
In terms of process, you can't really go wrong. Stafford's Detroit Lions have an implied total of 24.25 points as 5-point underdogs in a game with an over/under of 53.5. The San Francisco 49ers own a mark of just 20.5 as 2.5-point underdogs against the Chicago Bears. The New Orleans Saints are the third-worst pass defense in action this week, per our metrics, and the Bears rank 20th.
But Kaepernick has been pretty matchup agnostic given his rushing ability.
All of this is to say that you can't go wrong with either guy, and Stafford still has high upside in this game. I think you have to lean toward Kaepernick here, though.
Email submission from Keenan:
Going into the play-offs, who do you like the most at QB between Dak, Kirk, and [Kaepernick]? I have Dak and Kirk now, but I'm hoping Collin will be available on the waiver wire (8 team league). So if were to pick him up, I'd have to drop Kirk or Dak. With that said, who would you roll with? And if it's Collin, who would you drop between Dak and Kirk?
These are some strong options from which to pick, so we'll break them all down.
Per our remaining projections, Dak Prescott is your best bet, as we project him to be the QB5 for the rest of the year. He has a tough on-paper matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this week, but his Dallas Cowboys are 3.5-point road favorites. Then he plays on the road against the New York Giants before closing out the fantasy season home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Lions.
That's a solid enough schedule for a player of his caliber, as he's scored at least 17.48 points in every game since Week 1.
Kirk Cousins comes in as our QB8, about five points behind Prescott. Much like Prescott, he has two iffy matchups and then two easier ones. He's at the Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles before hosting the Carolina Panthers and traveling to face the Bears.
Kaepernick, our QB13 for the rest of the year, gets a road matchup against the Bears this week, hosts the New York Jets, and then travels to face the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams. That's juicy.
But considering our projections and the matchups, rank them Prescott, Kaepernick, and Cousins.
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