Top 4 Fantasy One-Hit Wonders from Week 4
I love one-hit wonders in real life, because we all need a little bit of Monica in our lives. But in the fantasy football world, they can absolutely ruin you. If you're thinking about these four guys this week, I'd think about looking elsewhere first.
Four Fantasy Football Week 4 One-Hit Wonders
RB Brandon Bolden - New England Patriots
Week 4 Fantasy Points: 20
Week 5 Projected Points: 3.12 (#44 RB)
Leagues Owned: 0.3%
Last week, I started off this article by talking about Danny Woodhead. This week, I'm starting off this article by talking about Brandon Bolden. Well, that was your first clue. Your second is that the week before, in a game where the Patriots didn't score 31 points in the fourth quarter, Brandon Bolden saw the field for a grand total of five plays. And your third clue is that, hey, Stevan Ridley still put up the most fantasy points of any running back this week, and they're not both going to put up high numbers each week. Look, I get why you'd want to pick him up, especially during a week when the running back options look so poor. Personally, though, I would rather have the waiver spot or the waiver cash for week 6. The Patriots play a numberFire top five defense in Denver next week, then play two tough games against struggling but talented defenses in the Seahawks and Jets, then travel to play a surprisingly tough St. Louis team on the road before a bye week. Do you see a can't-miss RB start anywhere in there, much less room for two? Neither do I.
RB Jackie Battle - San Diego Superchaaaaaaaargers
Week 4 Fantasy Points: 19
Week 5 Projected Points: 6.86 (#29 RB)
Leagues Owned: 9.0%
In the first quarter of the Chargers' game against the Chiefs, Jackie Battle had ten rushes for 53 yards and a touchdown. Those are excellent numbers, and I would be running full-steam to the waiver wire... if the Chargers didn't run him exactly one time in the second quarter, while Mathews took the large share of the carries. That Chargers timeshare absolutely frightens me. Mathews is the #1 on the depth chart, but I don't necessarily trust him as a feature back right now because of Battle. But then again, I also don't trust Battle because of Mathews looking like he's healthy. It's the ultimate catch-22 for a fantasy owner, so in the end, trusting neither RB is the answer. Battle looks to be an up-and-down fantasy option; you never know what he's going to give you on the ground, although a few targets in the passing game is reasonable to count on. I'd consider Battle in a PPR league, but in a standard league, I'm staying away. New Orleans is a good matchup for San Diego (which is why Battle has his highest projected point total until week 14), but then San Diego has the #5 numberFire defense in Denver, a bye, and the surprising #10 defense in Cleveland down the pipe.
WR Davone Bess - Miami Dolphins
Week 4 Fantasy Points: 12
Week 5 Projected Points: 6.11 (#43 WR)
Leagues Owned: 7.4%
I only have room in my heart for one Dolphins receiver, and Brian Hartline has already taken me on a couple of dates and given me flowers. So I'm sorry, Davone Bess, but I'm going to number-ize you. So with that in mind, raise your hand if you want to claim the #2 option in a Ryan Tannehill-led offense! Anybody? Bess sees a substantial amount of targets less than Hartline, with 22.3% of Tannehill's throws going his way as compared to the 33.6% Hartline sees. 22.3% is not a terrible proportion, but when your quarterback's completion percentage is 27th out of the 32 starting NFL QBs, your prospects begin to look a bit shakier. And when you notice Tannehill has the least number of touchdowns (two) of any starting QB, that shakiness becomes an earthquake. Bess's 123 receiving yards this past week were his career high, and he has only topped the century mark two other times (once in 2010 and another in 2009). And, to top it all off, he has never been the red zone target of choice; his zero TDs this year mirrors his 2011 season when he did not get his first touchdown (of three) until November.
TE Scott Chandler - Buffalo Bills
Week 4 Fantasy Points: 18
Week 5 Projected Points: 5.46 (#17 TE)
Leagues Owned: 31.6%
I like to do player comparisons here at numberFire, because it's fun to just look at the numbers. So tell me, between Player A and Player B, which one would you rather have?
Player A: 23 targets (2nd on team), league-leading 4 receiving TDs, 3 20+ yard catches, 5th in positional FP through week 4
Player B: 18.4% of his QB's throws, 43.8 receiving yards per game, only two double-digit fantasy games, QB is 24th in completion percentage and 18th in passing attempts
Rather have Player A, right? Well congrats, because you also have Player B; they're both Scott Chandler. And now you know why fantasy owners are so confused about Chandler. He is firmly entrenched as the #2 option in the Bills offense, but the Bills offense has been decidedly run-heavy through the first four weeks. He has been the target to look for in the red zone, but six different Bills have caught TD passes on the season. He is near the top of the tight end charts in fantasy points due to his touchdowns, but he's 17th in total receiving yards for tight ends, with both Antonio Gates and Heath Miller (who have played one less game) behind him. Sure, he had a good game against the Patriots, but can he keep up the TD producing? If you like to sweat on Sundays, he's the guy for you. But with so many tight ends producing this season, you can find much safer options elsewhere.