Fantasy Football Mailbag: Friday 11/11/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
Email submission from Keenan Bates:
With the trade deadline coming up, I wanted to put a couple feelers out there to see if I could make something happen for my team. That said, should I trade Devanta Freeman and Larry Fitzgerald for Le'Veon Bell?
Le'Veon Bell is a complete boss, and as discussed in this week's Heat Check DFS podcast, he's primed to start producing really soon. We should be trying to acquire him while we can, and a trade like this is a great way to do so.
Over the past four games, the Pittsburgh Steelers have had 20 total red-zone opportunities. Eight of those have gone Bell's way, meaning when they get in close, there's a good chance he's getting the ball. This gives him just gobs of touchdown upside, and those will come eventually. When you add his 23.0% target market share since returning, he's one of the top fantasy assets in the league over the rest of the season.
With Devonta Freeman, his upside without Tevin Coleman hasn't been as good as we may have expected coming into the season. In three games with Coleman on the field, Freeman's snap rate hasn't been higher than 75.4%, and he has never exceeded 17 carries. That's not a huge deviation from where he was when Coleman was healthy, and with Coleman poised to return after their Week 11 bye, it's fine to move on from him, especially if it nets you someone as good as Bell.
Email submission from David Traniello:
Hi Jim, enjoy reading your mailbag pieces on numberfire, and am going to take you up on your offer to help with football questions. Here’s one for my 10 team fantasy bonus PPR high scoring league. I need 3 of these (2 WR and a WR/Flex): D Hopkins (can they get him the ball for once?). Stefon Diggs (target volume, but MIN offense is terrible). A Jeffery (love his matchup this week, and streaming Smokin Jay w Luck on bye). Tyrell Williams (could be SD #1 WR). M. Thomas ( white hot and NO at home, but Denver D?). Right now, I am thinking Hopkins, Diggs and Jeffery. Talk me out of it. Need the W this week like a kidney.
There are definitely some interesting options here, so you're not scraping too hard. We're definitely locking in Alshon Jeffery against one of the worst pass defenses in the league. The volume for Stefon Diggs -- as David mentioned -- is good enough where he also earns a spot. The one change we might want to consider is using Tyrell Williams instead of DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins' matchup this week is very tough. The Jacksonville Jaguars rank ninth against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, a huge gain from where they were last year. They've allowed four different receivers to top 90 receiving yards against them, but only one of them -- Jeffery -- was the unquestioned top receiver on his team. The presence of cornerback Jalen Ramsey should lower our optimism around opposing number-one wide receivers, and it definitely hurts Hopkins' outlook.
Williams doesn't face those same restrictions. The Miami Dolphins rank 26th against opposing top receivers, according to numberFire's DFS tools, and Williams will be exactly that with Travis Benjamin seeming likely to miss Sunday's game. The San Diego Chargers have a meaty implied team total at 26.25, and the Texans are down at 20, making Williams a worthy play for the week.
@numberFire Booker, KBenj, Miller, pick 2
— Collin Finn (@cfitty66) November 11, 2016
If Lamar Miller is healthy, you're using him against the Jaguars' 31st-ranked rush defense, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. That whittles this down to Kelvin Benjamin and Devontae Booker, and Benjamin would likely hold a slight edge there.
Benjamin's facing the Kansas City Chiefs this week, and they're numberFire's fifth-ranked pass defense. That would normally scare us off. However, the Chiefs absolutely bury tight ends, ranking first against opposing team's top tight ends, according to our DFS tools. If they can limit Greg Olsen and his 24.4% target market share, that's going to leave opportunities open for Benjamin, and we should be investing here for this reason.
There had been fear earlier this week that Booker would lose his job to Kapri Bibbs after a rough outing in Week 10. That thought seems to have subsided a bit as ESPN's Jeff Legwold wrote today that, while Bibbs would see carries, Booker is "still the lead guy at the moment". This means we can use him, especially in a huge matchup against the New Orleans Saints. But when you've got alternatives as awesome as Miller and Benjamin, it's okay to leave him on the bench and wait until the picture is more clear.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.