Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tuesday 11/8/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire How should we handle Booker? Will he truly share time with Biggs now or will they give him one more shot to carry the load?
â€” Bunch (@bunch_91) November 8, 2016
Per Fantasy Data, Booker played 82% of the snaps in Week 9 against the Oakland Raiders, but he hasn't been able to be anything more than a league-average back in terms of efficiency. By our Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, he's accrued -0.04 points per carry this season, which is about league average. On a per-play basis, he adds positive points less than 39% of the time -- again, about average at best.
Making this more complicated is that the Denver Broncos draw the New Orleans Saints in Week 10. New Orleans is favored by 1.5 points, but the game has a 49-point total, and the Saints are the sixth-worst run defense playing in Week 10, per our metrics.
The two should split time, and the matchup is good enough that both could provide some fantasy points, and we can see who really is treated as the starter.
Email submission from Matthew Smith:
I'm going for Lamar Miller from a guy in my league but who would you offer up from my team while not giving up too much but making a sweet offer? I would like to get rid of Brandon Marshall as I haven't been happy with his performance but you tell me what you think (maybe even Hopkins too with the Brock situation). The current status of my team is attached.
It's easy to get on board with trying to trade for Lamar Miller, but it's hard to know just how other fantasy football players value him. He started slowly and hasn't really turned it around fully. He put up 31.3 half-PPR points three games ago, but that was sandwiched between two games with fewer than 9. So, he isn't one of those can't-move assets for other owners, and looking to acquire him could yield to a successful trade.
Our projections peg Miller as the RB10 for the rest of the season and Gurley as the RB15, for some context. Marshall and Hopkins come in as the WR21 and WR19, respectively, in our rest-of-way projections. If you can get Miller one-for-one for either receiver, you'll come out ahead, all things considered, and those offers shouldn't insult the Miller owner. I'd look to swap Nuk first, though, so that you don't have too much exposure to the Houston Texans offense.
@numberFire how much will Norman shadow Diggs this week? Enough to be wary of playing him?
â€” Fred (@Logan_M_Marty) November 8, 2016
This week, Diggs should draw a fair amount of Josh Norman, who was able to play in Week 8 against the Cincinnati Bengals despite concussion concerns. He's now had a week of rest after the trip to London. In Week 10, he'll have a chance to lock up Diggs, who is coming off a 13-catch game, but the good news for Diggs owners is that Norman doesn't really travel into the slot.
When Diggs is on the outside, he'll probably draw Norman's coverage, but the Minnesota Vikings should be able to get him plenty of snaps without Norman opposite him. We project Diggs to be the WR7 this week in half-PPR formats.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Brandon.Gdula@FanDuel.com.