NFL
21.3% Of You Are 100% Wrong
Only Jay Cutler Can Rival Philip River's Sideline Pouty Face

If I were to tell you that Gordon Ramsey was opening a new restaurant, you would likely assume it will have great food. And because he is known the world over as a top-notch chef and entertainer, your assumption wouldn't be much of a stretch. But what would happen if half the kitchen staff quit and was replaced by former McDonald's employees? On top of that, let's say that the wait staff turned rude, the GM ended up being incompetent, and Ramsey became paralyzed while fighting a rogue camel in Michigan's upper peninsula. Would people still go there? As long as it said Ramsey's name on the sign out front, of course they would. His name and reputation would keep people coming back for more, even if the quality of food and service had suffered.

Now lets replace Ramsey and his restaurant with Brown (26.2%) was just hurt a week ago, so his ownership percentage will continue to drop in the next several days. But I also saw him get picked in two of the five drafts I did after he was injured. Beyond the obvious (you know, the whole broken leg thing), the case against Brown is simple: David Wilson. Even if Wilson doesn't become the next big thing, he is very likely to at least establish himself as a very competent NFL running back with explosive upside. When Brown comes back he will not only have to get into game shape, but he will also have to somehow angle for touches. This could prove to be difficult for a guy with marginal talent to begin with. All of this on top of his best case scenario being returning when the fantasy season is already two-thirds over? No thanks.

Honorable mention at running back goes to Mikel LeShoure (17.6%). He is the third stringer in Detroit, so even if Reggie Bush goes down, he is in line for the bad end of the carry split behind our old friend, Joique Bell. You can do better. Such as...

The Replacements

I won't waste your time with pontification when two of my esteemed colleagues already covered Bilal Powell (30.6%) and Mike Tolbert (16.8%) in detail. Suffice it to say, both are better options than a guy on crutches for the next two months.

Santana Moss is Old

Raise your hand if you got to the 14th round needing a fourth wide receiver and said, "Santana Moss is still decent." I know at least some of you went there, because he is somehow owned in 19.7% of leagues. Look, there isn't a whole lot of next level, NEP, YPA, or YPC discussion needed here. The fact is that Moss is a 34 year-old fifth wide receiver on a run-heavy team. He saw a career low 61 targets last year, a number he will be hard pressed to approach in 2013. The circumstances required for Moss to have value are about as likely to occur as my wife being able to peel me off the couch this coming Sunday. Without a crane, subpoena, crowbar, and a can of Crisco, it ain't happening.

The Replacement

Darrius Heyward-Bey (20.4%) gets no respect. Maybe it is the stone hands, poor route running, brutal NEP per target numbers (54th among 59 receivers with at least 75 targets in 2012), and inability to live up to expectations? Regardless of whether we love him, the Colts do. In this case, that is all that matters. The cold hard fact is that DHB is going to be on the field nearly every offensive snap to start the season. And as much as people are talking about the Colts dialing back their offense, we will not be seeing Luck as a 25 pass per game quarterback either. The quality of their defense and questionable health of their starting running back, Ahmad Bradshaw, will dictate that they throw it a ton. Last year the Colts number two receiver, Donnie Avery, saw 124 targets. Heyward-Bey could easily see a similar number. And if he does, he will end up as a not-unreasonable flex play.

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