Fantasy Football Mailbag: Friday 10/28/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
Email submission from Zach Chernes:
I'm 3-4 in my 12 person PPR league and after a very slow start have won two in a row. But this week, I'm kind of lost. We start 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 flex (plus QB + TE). Am I crazy to start 3 GB WR?
The three Green Bay Packers receivers in play here are Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Ty Montgomery with Jordan Matthews being the alternative. Given the tough conditions for Matthews and Green Bay's pass-happy ways, that's a move I'd be willing to make.
Matthews is playing in an unfathomably-slow game, featuring the 29th- and 30th-ranked teams in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. This limits his upside because there simply won't be enough plays for him to bust off a huge night, and his floor isn't super tempting now, either. His target market share the past four games is 15.9%, and that's not a number you want even in higher-paced games.
The Packers' bout with the Atlanta Falcons is radically different. Both teams rank in the top six in situation-neutral pace, meaning there will be a boatload of plays. With the Packers' inability to run, a good chunk of those are going to wind up coming through the air. The Falcons rank 21st against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics, meaning they should be able to move the ball, giving viability to this strategy when you need to deploy it.
Email submission from Keenan Bates:
I was offered Andrew Luck for Larry Fitzgerald. Derek Carr is my current QB and has been pretty decent (these last two weeks not withstanding), but I would like a stud (top 5) QB1, if possible. However, Fitzgerald has been one of the few consistent contributors on my squad, so its a tough choice. My current WR line-up (in a standard league that uses 3) includes Fitzgerald, Beckham Jr., A-Rob, Crabtree, Dez Bryant and Michael Thomas. Fitz has a plus match-up against Carolina that I hope will net me some points, so I'm reluctant to let him go, especially since Beckham is on bye this week. Would you make that trade? And if not, would you counter with another wide-out? Thanks again!
Because of Larry Fitzgerald's involvement in an efficient offense (both overall and in the red zone), this is a trade I'd prefer to turn down.
Fitzgerald's 25.3% target market share ranks ninth among all receivers this season, giving him a solid floor each and every week. He also has 32.1% of the Arizona Cardinals' targets in the red zone this year, meaning he also has a solid ceiling. There aren't many wide receivers who can give you that combo, and it makes him a hard asset to give up in any trade.
With Derek Carr, you'll definitely need to find an alternative after this week. He faces the Denver Broncos in Week 9, and the Oakland Raiders have a bye in Week 10. After that, though, his schedule opens up a bit, and he could end the season on a high note. The best strategy here may be to pick up someone off of waivers to start after this week before plugging Carr back in for the stretch run.
Email submission from Carrie Bagwell:
I play in a two QB league. We can only roster two as well. I currently have Stafford and Tannehill. With Tannehill on bye this week, I was thinking about dropping him and riding a different second QB for the rest of the season so I'm really only looking at guys who are past their own byes which gives me the following available (that I'd even consider): Prescott, Wentz, and Bradford. Am I nuts? Should I flex another player and just bench Tannehill this week? Should I pick up someone else just for the week and hope I can get him back or someone better?
If you've got a chance to pick up Dak Prescott in a two-quarterback league, you should leap on that puppy and ride him until you can ride him no more.
Of the 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs, Prescott ranks fourth in Passing Net Expected Points per drop back, the metric we use to track a quarterback's efficiency. He has been balling out, and it has helped him to score at least 17 points in each of his past five games.
The obvious concern here is that the Dallas Cowboys will eventually replace him in the starting lineup when Tony Romo is healthy. That's a risk you're taking by dropping Ryan Tannehill and rolling with Prescott, so it's easy to understand any hesitancy to make the move. However, the upsides of having Prescott on your roster while he's starting are high enough to outweigh any negatives associated with dropping Tannehill.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.