Fantasy Football Mailbag: Thursday 9/22/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
Email submission from Matthew Tilton:
I know Matt Jones had a "decent" week last week, mainly because he scored. What is his value moving forward? Derrick Henry is available on waivers. Thanks
Matt Jones' line in Week 2 -- 13 rushes for 61 yards and 1 touchdown -- was encouraging. But it's likely not the best thing he has working in his favor right now because his efficiency metrics are really solid.
Jones currently ranks 10th out of 42 backs with at least 15 carries in numberFire's Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry, the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players. This comes a year after Jones was one of the worst players in the entire league in the same metric, and he's sitting third in Success Rate, as well. He's playing well enough to earn additional carries, even though the perception is that Washington can't run the ball.
This shined through in Jones' usage last week when he was on the field for 58.2% of the snaps, up from 32.8% in Week 1. This spike came despite Washington trailing for most of the first half, indicating his floor may be a bit better than we had expected. For these reasons, Jones is a guy you want to keep, even if it's best to leave him on your bench for Week 3 against a rebuilt New York Giants defense.
Email submission from Rocky:
12 team .5 ppr league. Start 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 flex. Been offered my choice of D Thomas or Marvin Jones for Ingram. Other rbs are Hyde, Blount, Crowell, Matt Jones, and Dixon. Other WRs are OBJ, Evans, John Brown, Sanu, Tyrell. Make the deal or stay put? If so, which wr?
Overall, Mark Ingram isn't a bad guy to sell. He has just 60% of the team's rushing attempts so far this year, and he played only 42.0% of the snaps at home in Week 1. Still, it might be good to keep him in this situation.
Ingram's usage in Week 1 was disappointing, but it ticked up in Week 2. Not only was he on the field more in Week 2 with 58.1% of the snaps, but he also had four targets in the passing game. That was one of the bigger concerns in Week 1 after Travaris Cadet warranted seven targets, but Ingram out-targeted Cadet in Week 2. Cadet's drops in Week 1 may have hurt his role, and that will only help Ingram.
If Ingram can reclaim the role he had last year -- when he was one of the highest-floor running backs every week -- then he might be a better option than the trade alternatives. That's why I'd hold one more week, see what his role is in Week 3, and proceed from there.
Email submission from Tom Garrihy:
I enjoy your daily mail bag and would appreciate your thoughts on which of following players I should start this week: QB Flacco or Tannehill. RB CJ Anderson or C Simms. WR as a flex: A Robinson or M Jones. TE I plan on using J Reed, but I have D Pitta as my bkup and like his matchup vs. Jags better than Reed's against Giants. Thanks in advance for your feedback.
At quarterback, both guys are in good spots. However, the Miami Dolphins' implied team total is the fifth-highest of the week, and you're not fading a quarterback in that spot. Ryan Tannehill holds the edge over Joe Flacco for that reason.
At running back, few players have the floor of C.J. Anderson. He has 40 rushes and 10 targets through the first two weeks, and he has been on the field for 73.6% of the snaps. The matchup isn't great as they trek to Cincinnati, but there are few guys for whom you should be benching him.
Allen Robinson's production has been disappointing so far, but don't let that scare you out of using him in season-long or DFS. He had 15 targets in Week 1, and in Week 2, he faced a matchup against the immensely talented Jason Verrett. There's no reason to worry on Robinson just yet, and even though Marvin Jones is also a great choice, Robinson is the superior option.
Wrapping up with the tight ends, you'll want to keep Jordan Reed in there. He still has a 20.7% market share in the offense, and the New York Giants allowed Jason Witten to rack up 9 receptions for 66 yards on 14 targets in Week 1. The Giants' defense is legit, but they don't seem to have figured out how to shut down tight ends yet, keeping Reed as the top option despite Dennis Pitta's simultaneous viability.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.