Fantasy Football Mailbag: Wednesday 9/14/16
Fantasy football research never stops, and roles change drastically from one week to the next. That's where our fantasy football mailbag comes into play.
Have a question about a certain player, team, strategy, or anything football? Shoot us a question on Twitter or send an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com, and we can talk anything fantasy football related -- even daily fantasy football.
Now, let's answer some questions.
@numberFire Are we in line for The Shootout Part2 BreesvsManning🤔🤔
— Willie Johnson (@WillieJ0212) September 14, 2016
Well, Vegas certainly thinks so, setting the over/under at 53, the highest of the week by three points. There are two important things to keep in mind, though, before we dive head-first into every single asset involved in this game.
First, that 52-49 game took place in a dome. That may not seem overly important, but we have seen in the past that scoring increases when a game is indoors. Not only are they not in a dome this week, but the current forecast calls for some afternoon rain. That would be an even bigger deterrent than simply leaving the Superdome.
Second, the New York Giants' defense could very well be an improved unit this year. They added Damon Harrison and Janoris Jenkins in free agency and selected Eli Apple in the first round. Even if those players don't pan out, they invested heavily in this side of the ball, and we shouldn't expect them to struggle as much as they did in 2015.
Those are only two factors, and there are a laundry list of reasons to believe it'll be high-scoring again. We just may want to hesitate before saying it'll hit triple digits.
What this means for daily fantasy is that you'll want to find ways to differentiate in tournaments because you know this game is going to be chalky as all get-up. Yes, that likely means avoiding Odell Beckham in tournaments, and you may find Willie Snead's ownership to be a bit perturbing. But you can still find sneakier ways to get in on this game that will provide you with a bigger safety net in case it's not as high-scoring as people expect it to be.
@numberFire I had Keenan Allen, Julio Jones, and Amari Cooper. I'm in a .5 PPR, who do I pick up to replace Allen.
— brandon (@brandonstowell_) September 13, 2016
As a fellow Keenan Allen owner, you have my deepest condolences. Thankfully, there are abundant options for replacement. As numberFire's JJ Zachariason outlined in yesterday's 15 transactions column, you should be picking up Eli Rogers, Tyrell Williams, and Malcolm Mitchell. If you need people beyond them, though, you should check out Davante Adams and Dontrelle Inman.
Let's start with Adams, the guy who likely punched a few of you right in the kisser last year. Adams was on the field for 92.2% of the Green Bay Packers' snaps in Week 1, second on the team among skill-position players behind only Randall Cobb. That number should decline as the team unleashes Jordy Nelson more, but with Jared Abbrederis seeing only 22% of the snaps, it's clear that Adams is the No. 3 option on this team. With his seven targets (including one in the red zone) on a high-powered offense, Adams is fantasy-relevant once again.
As for Inman, he doesn't have the same upside as his teammate, Williams, but he likely possesses the higher floor. That all boils down to snap counts once Keenan Allen had left the field.
WR snaps during that span were Dontrelle Inman 38, TBenjamin 34, Tyrell Williams 33. Stuck with 3-wide base despite big lead, Keenan injury.
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 13, 2016
This means Inman missed only one snap after Allen's injury, and all three of his targets came in the second half. Inman disappointed a bit when he got an opportunity last year, but part of that was due to awful matchups and a neck injury that forced him to miss all of one game and most of another. You should favor Williams of the two, but Inman is a solid consolation prize.
@numberFire someone offered me Ware for Snead, standard scoring would u pull trigger?
— Dave (@buckeye_dave12) September 14, 2016
This one is close, so it would largely depend on the composition of your team. However, if you're in need of a running back, then bringing on Spencer Ware is fully justified.
Right now, we just don't know when Jamaal Charles will play for the Kansas City Chiefs. Ware played well enough to allow the team to be patients with Charles, and he's also probably earned a role even when Charles is healthy.
When Charles is out (and again, that could persist for a bit still), Ware is one of the best fantasy assets in the league. When Charles returns, Ware will likely still get the goal-line usage, maintaining his fantasy relevancy. If you're in need of a back, Ware really isn't a bad option.
This isn't to speak ill of Willie Snead. He played 75.4% of the snaps in Week 1 and saw nine targets, so his production wasn't fluky. He could have an absurd year, so I wouldn't try to trade him in most scenarios. However, if you need an option, this is one situation in which Ware may be more desirable.
Want to have your questions answered in our mailbag? Submit your questions by tweeting @numberFire or sending an email to Jim.Sannes@FanDuel.com.