NFL

Fantasy Football, Breaking Bad Style

Fantasy football has far more in common with AMC's hit series Breaking Bad than you would think.

This Sunday, it all starts again. It's the day so many of us have waited all summer for. No, of course it's not the start of the NFL's regular season. We've got a month before that glorious should-be-national-holiday. Rather, August 11 marks the airing of the first of eight final episodes of AMC's Breaking Bad, the culmination of the story of an ordinary high school chemistry teacher who turns to selling crystal meth.

"Chemistry. It's the study of change... It's the cycle. It's growth, the decay. The transformation," says Walter White, everyone's favorite science-teacher-turned-meth-dealer, in the pilot episode of Breaking Bad. The same can be said about fantasy football. Here at numberFire.com, we anticipate the change, the cycle, the transformation of players from one year to this next. We're not relying on preseason word of mouth or stats from last Sunday's exhibition opener (please do not take Cowboys running back Joseph Randle with your first pick) to predict what will emerge in 2013. We're giving statistics richer meaning and using the numbers to make fact-based projections.

In honor of Breaking Bad's Walter White, I'm setting out to do arguably the most "scientific" thing ever attempted at numberFire.com. No, I will not be cooking crystal meth. Instead I'll be looking at which NFL players fit the mold of our favorite Breaking Bad characters. If you're not a Breaking Bad fan, the ride is still worth it.

Walter White is...

transformed, brilliant, resourceful, arrogant...

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Tom Brady was not considered the best quarterback on his own college team. Tom Brady was a 6th-round pick. Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL. Just as Walter metamorphosized from a meek high school teacher to a drug kingpin, Brady has exceeded all early expectations (albeit, in a far more legal manner than Mr. White). Walter's exclamation, "I am not in danger...I am the danger" could have been spoken by Brady's right arm.

Also like Walter, Brady is no stranger to change. As Walter has persevered and ultimately succeeded while working under wildly different conditions, Brady enters 2013 to a vastly different landscape--no Welker, no Hernandez, and no Gronk for the foreseeable future. In their place to pick up the slack are names like Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, and Shane Vereen. Because of this, Brady's ADP has fallen to the 5th round. Perennially a top-three quarterback, Brady has dropped to number six, behind Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan.

We at numberFire.com don't see things this way. Brady stands at number three in our quarterback rankings, behind only Rodgers and Brees. His net expected points per pass of .28 last season was better than that of both Rodgers (.20) and Brees (.21) in a year that saw injuries to Gronkowski and Hernandez and the terrible hands of Brandon Lloyd. In other words, Brady was adding .28 points to the Patriots score each time he tossed the rock. Remember, Walter White found his greatest success with a new crew led by Todd and Lydia, and I don't believe anyone saw that coming. I've learned that when the winds of change approach, Walter White and Tom Brady rise to the occasion.

Jesse Pinkman is...

fiesty, diminutive, passionate...

Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos

Who else could be sidekick/protege to Water White/Tom Brady? And how could I leave the only player in the NFL with the intials "W.W." out of this article? Just like Jesse Pinkman, Welker was small time before he linked up with his older mentor. Welker came from anonymity in Miami to stardom in New England. Now things had changes, and Welker is now at Payton Manning's disposal in Denver. While it's difficult predict what will come of Jesse Pinkman as Breaking Bad comes to an end, we think Welker will be just fine. Though Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will put up their share of fantasy points, Welker, who had a receiving NEP/target of .66 last season, is our 14th-ranked wideout. I'm not sure Jesse will survive the final season of Breaking Bad, but I know that Welker will flourish as part of the potent Broncos attack.

Hank Schrader is...

resilient, focused, bald...

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

A season three shooting left Hank Schrader unable to walk, but he miraculously recovered quickly, and by season four he was back to chasing the elusive blue meth. No one could have predicted that Adrian Peterson would recover from a torn ACL and MCL in less than a year to become the league's best back once again. Peterson remains number one in our overall rankings. His .10 rushing net expected points per play in 2013 put him well ahead of number two fantasy ranked Arian Foster (-.02 NEP), who puts up fantasy points in a far less efficient manner than Peterson. A healthy 2013 should continue to bring big things for the fictional Hank Schrader and very real Adrian Peterson.

Saul Goodman is...

unorthodox, slippery, effective

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

In the Breaking Bad world, when you're in trouble, "you better call Saul." In the NFL, that man is Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben may not do the job in textbook fashion, but he's going to get the job done. We've ranked him as our number 13 quarterback, a borderline starting fantasy quarterback in almost every league. His ADP, however, is in round 11, and he's fallen behind the likes of Andy Dalton and Michael Vick. So if you're looking for value at quarterback after the top 12 are off the board, you better call Big Ben.

Gus Fring is...

brilliant, meticulous, cunning, poised...

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

At age 37, Peyton Manning no longer has the laser rocket arm of his youth. Like Breaking Bad's Gus Fring, Peyton now relies on his mind to sustain success. He's a veteran who makes pinpoint decisions based on analysis and execution. Peyton remains a top option--he's number four on our signal-calling board--and I like to think that he and his brother Eli (ranked 15th at quarterback) are the NFL's version of "Los Pollos Hermanos."

Mike Ehrmantraut is...

tough-as-nails, loyal, old...

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons

He said he wouldn't come back, but he came back. This could be said about both the interestingly named Mike Ehrmantraut and the 750-year-old tight end Tony Gonzalez. After falling short of the Super Bowl, Gonzalez decided to return for one more shot, and this could bode very well for the fantasy owners who roster him. He finished with an receiving NEP per target of .78 (.11 better than that of Jimmy Graham), adding .78 points to the Falcons score each time he was targeted. He's our third-best tight end, so don't be afraid to draft him as early as the 5th or 6th round in a standard 12-team league.

Todd Alquist is...

eager, ambitious, subordinate...

Danny Amendola, WR, New England Patriots

If Tom Brady is Walter White, and Wes Welker is Jesse Pinkman, how could we not wind up here? Todd Alquist is Jesse Pinkman-lite, the new sidekick to a now very powerful Walter White. Like Todd, Danny Amendola is at the right place at the right time. The most accomplished receiver in New England, all Amendola needs to do is walk the path laid out for him by Welker. However, he is not Welker, and he's battled injury throughout his career. As evidenced by Brandon Lloyd and Chad Ochocinco, success in New England's offense isn't automatic; it's earned. Amendola has a 4th-round ADP, and numberFire.com says that's too high. We've got Reggie Wayne, Mike Williams, Antonio Brown, and others ranked ahead of him. Buyer beware.

To Conclude:

Breaking Bad and football really do share a lot. There are alleged killers (Aaron Hernandez), relentless blowhards (Rex Ryan), and guys who are in the "dynasty business" (Bill Belichick). But don't let the drama get in the way of the numbers, especially when those number can forecast change. With that, I'm predicting a 1000% chance that I'll be watching Breaking Bad on Sunday.