Fantasy Football: Is Tyler Lockett Worth His Rising Draft Price?
Lockett’s Draft Position Jump
If we look at MyFantasyLeague.com Public League drafts, it’s evident that Tyler Lockett’s ADP is on the move.
In drafts dating back to May 1, Lockett held an ADP of 66.27 and on average, was the 34th wide receiver off the board.
But if we look at drafts only after July 15, Lockett’s ADP is eight spots higher at 58.01.
Lockett’s leap in ADP can mostly be attributed to the recent Reception Perception piece by Matt Harmon of NFL.com, praising Lockett as a well-rounded talent poised to take the next step in his game. Soon after, Lockett’s ADP quickly moved into the fifth round.
Also playing into the draft-cost rise was Lockett's back-half production. After Seattle’s Week 9 bye last season, Lockett became more integrated into the offense, and his usage numbers skyrocketed:
| Lockett Splits | Snap % | Target Share | Targets/Game | Rec/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Bye | 54.1% | 12.7% | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| After Bye | 69.5% | 15.9% | 5.1 | 3.8 |
Lockett’s fantasy production was clearly on the rise in the second half of the season, which is another reason he’s being drafted so highly. But now that the cost is much higher than it was a month ago to bet on a Lockett breakout, are there enough situational factors to justify a fifth-round pick?
