The 10 Most Overrated NFL Head Coaches Since 2000

Which head coaches have won the most despite producing weak teams based on advanced analytics?

Perception is nine-tenths of the law. That’s how the saying goes, right?

How someone views what you are presenting to them is often much more important than what you are actually presenting. The snake-oil salesmen of the 1800’s did so well at swindling people out of their money because they were able to present this commonplace concoction -- usually mineral oil mixed with red pepper and turpentine -- as something mystical and wondrous. It all depends on the pitch; how you view something determines what its worth is.

NFL coaches sometimes have reputations that imply mystical powers to influence certain situations on the gridiron: Marc Trestman is the quarterback whisperer, Jim Schwartz is a masterful architect of blitz packages, and Jeff Fisher can manufacture an 8-8 record out of thin air.

It’s magic.

It’s these reputations based on win-loss record that I wanted to investigate. We often see a team or their head coach and associate a win total with them; that’s often the measure of success. But wins don’t tell the whole story.

Which NFL head coaches have a nice winning percentage since 2000 but actually produced weak teams, according to the advanced analytics?