5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 17
In general, I'm not a fan of amusement park rides. I can probably handle spinning in place, but if that sucker goes upside down, I'm avoiding at all costs.
However, because other kids were cruel and liked them, we ended up going to a place called Valley Fair for a lot of birthdays when I was younger. This forced me to be around roller coasters a bunch, even though I'd wet myself at the mere thought of those slow ascents and quick drops.
At first, I did a decent enough job of avoiding any rides that would put my bladder to the test, opting instead for kiddy coasters and copious trips to the bathroom. Once the others picked up on my fear, though, I was donezo.
I may have been opposed to roller coasters, but I had no backbone for peer pressure. As soon as my "friends" started egging me on about how big of a scaredy cat I was, I gave in. I couldn't take it any more. It was time to face the music.
As I strapped in, I knew my minutes on this Earth were numbered. Dread overcame me, and I only hoped my friends would tell my mourning family that I was brave.
The ride started. Before we were even out the gate, I was screaming, not realizing the cart was rolling at around 10 miles per hour.
We slowly crept up before the climb, and I started to get this weird feeling rushing through me: I was kind of excited. After all of these years of avoiding roller coasters, being on one with no shot at turning back was mildly exciting. I was finally going to see what the rage was all about.
By the end of the ride, I had experienced everything from fear to bliss to anguish to mania. My mind was racing while simultaneously thinking nothing at all. Basically, I blacked out for seven minutes.
The only time I have been able to replicate this weird mixture of feelings is Week 17 of the NFL season.
You're going to want to vomit. If you believe in a higher power, you'll have plentiful discussions with them. But in the end, it just could end up being the most thrilling week of the year. It's the perfect blend of unpredictability that brings an extra thrill to the whole slate.
Even if it is a bit more unpredictable than other weeks, that doesn't mean we can't find some sweet matchups to exploit. Let's attempt to do so using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). This is the metric we use to track the efficiency of both teams and players, with the team totals being adjusted based on strength of opposition.
Here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there is an expected number of points that a team will score on its current drive. A positive play (such as a three-yard rush on 3rd and 2) will increase that, resulting in positive NEP. A negative play (such as a three-yard rush on 3rd and 4) will decrease that, resulting in negative NEP. The fluctuations in expected points over the course of a year are NEP.
Let's use NEP to try to pin down some plays that could bring us on the more positive side of the wild ride that is Week 17.