5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 14
I have no problem admitting that I have absolutely abominable taste in television shows. Sure, I'll occasionally accidentally watch a show that the public perceives to be quality, but the odds are not in my favor.
As such, it should come as no surprise that -- until recently -- I had never watched The Wire, commonly accepted as one of the best shows ever written. I decided to amend that two weeks ago.
Although I may not be able to pick out a great show from a lineup, once I start watching one, I am able to recognize it. The Wire most definitely counts, my friends. Over the past two weeks, I've buzzed through almost three and a half seasons -- 40 hours worth of total viewing -- without considering that I should maybe try to function as a human being outside of that at some point.
Because I've been so sucked in by The Wire, my level of attention to almost everything else in the world has been null. The only world that exists is the one in which I can choke on Bunk's cigar smoke or snag a tall white tee shirt from Bubs. All else is outside my blinders.
We can follow similar patterns of tunnel vision when it comes to daily fantasy football. I'm not saying The Wire isn't good. I'm just saying there's other good stuff out there. Our devotion to the shiny object currently occupying our attention can force us to overlook other areas that warrant additional investigation.
I'm as bad as anybody when it comes to this type of behavior, so I'm trying to make up for that now by backing up and trying to see the whole picture. Maybe the New Orleans Saints aren't the only team with a bad pass defense. Can I select running backs who aren't playing the Cleveland Browns? Because we've been drilling these situations so hard for 13 weeks now, it's understandable that we'd turn to them out of sheer reflex, even when there are other equally tasty options available.
Let's try to break out of that tunnel vision a bit today. We'll attempt to do this by using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP is the measure of efficiency we use for both teams and players, with the team totals being adjusted based on strength of opponent.
If you're new to the site, here's how NEP works. Prior to each play, there's an expected number of points the offense will score on their current drive. A positive play (such as a three-yard rush on 3rd-and-2) will increase that, resulting in positive NEP. A negative play (such as a three-yard rush on 3rd-and-4) will decrease that, resulting in negative NEP. NEP is just the sum of all of these fluctuations over the course of the season.
Let's go through five areas where numberFire's metrics indicate one team should have a serious advantage in order to spot some values for DFS in Week 14. And then we can go back to slowly deteriorating while watching another 10 hours of The Wire.