5 Daily Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit in Week 6
Five weeks into the NFL season, it's time to come to grips with something: we don't know diddly poo. Everything we knew coming into the season has gone up in flames.
Thankfully, we don't have to bask in our predictive suckitude. Instead, we can use what we have learned through the first five weeks (and, believe me, we've learned a lot) and implement it into our future decision making. Using metrics -- which don't enter with the same biases we may carry -- can help us move past what we've been trained to think and into what we should be thinking.
As such, it's time to take a look at which matchups appear to be the juiciest when it comes to daily fantasy football in Week 6. We'll be doing this using numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). NEP is our efficiency metric that measures the effect of each play on the expected number of points a team will score on that particular drive.
For example, if it's 3rd and 2, and a running back rushes for three yards, the team's expected point total would likely increase. That's positive NEP. However, if it's 3rd and 4, and he rushes for the same three yards, the team's expected point total would likely decrease. That's negative NEP. We take each play, add up the expected points added and subtracted, and spit out a number that reflects the efficiency of either the team or individual.
The team totals are adjusted based on strength of opponent. That's largely what we'll be looking at here. We want to find an offense that excels in one aspect of the game facing a defense that struggles in that same area.
I should note that these recommendations are only for the Sunday to Monday slate. If you're playing the Thursday slate, you need to invest in the Atlanta Falcons' passing offense. The New Orleans Saints rank 31st in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play. Jacob Tamme is in a sweet spot, and you really can't go wrong with Julio Jones (even if he's on a pitch count) or Leonard Hankerson if they play. Now, let's get into the rest of this week's top matchups.