Alex Smith isn't (and never will be) the sexiest play in fantasy football, but as often seems to be the case, he's a great value this week.

He's had some disappointing fantasy outings recently, largely due to the fact that he hasn't been producing touchdowns, throwing only one in the last three games. We can expect to see his touchdown numbers to pick up a bit though, especially this week.

The Chiefs rank sixth in the NFL this season with a 1.92 pass-run ratio in the red zone. Vegas odds also project them to have the fourth-highest team total of the week, at 27.25. There will be plenty of scoring chances, and a lot of them are likely to come through the air.

Smith also draws a soft matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago, who our metrics had as the worst pass defense in the league in 2014, hasn't done much to improve on that and currently rank 29th in Adjusted Defensive Passing Net Expected Points (NEP).