4 Week 2 Storylines to Watch: Will the Packers Get Their Revenge?
NFC Division Title Redux
Painful as it is for Packers fans to remember how their team's season ended last year, they've likely been looking forward to this very weekend since the schedules were announced. Now Brandon Bostick-less, the Packers have their eyes set on revenge. And a couple of factors could work in their favor.
First, Vegas has the Packers as three-point home favorites against the 'Hawks. The Seahawks are obviously an intimidating defense, having finished as the third-best run defense and passing defense in terms of our schedule-adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP) metrics.
But their defensive unit was actually far less effective at stopping drives while on the road, having stayed on the field for a total of 690 plays during road games as opposed to 439 plays during home games in 2014. Last week, we saw Nick Foles throw for 297 yards on a mere 27 passes against them. I think it's safe to say Aaron Rodgers has that kind of capacity too.
Another thing hurting the Seahawks is the prolonged absence of strong safety, Kam Chancellor, whose excellent tackling and coverage abilities were sorely missed in Week 1, which will likely allow the Packers receivers more breathing room as they execute their routes. With Richard Sherman expected to be utilized in slot coverage, something he has never really done before, expect him and the Packers current number-one receiver, Randall Cobb, to see a lot of each other.
That could free up Davante Adams or James Jones to be Rodgers' go-to-guy in the passing game.
But let's not forget that the matchups for Marshawn Lynch, and the Seahawks' new tight end, Jimmy Graham, are favorable as well, as the Packers finished 15th best, and 22nd in the NFL in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per drop back and Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per rush respectively in 2014.
With an over/under set at 48, and a recent history suggesting a potent cross-divisional rivalry, this game figures to deliver the grand finale fireworks on Sunday night.
