Overall ADP: 5.03
ADP Position Rank: WR 22
numberFire Position Rank: WR37

Our own JJ Zachariason already highlighted his confusion with all of the love for Jarvis Landry in fantasy football in late July. At that time, Landry’s ADP sat at the middle of the sixth round in standard leagues and has subsequently risen to the beginning of the fifth round.

There’s just too much working against Landry to justify this rise, particularly since he was being overvalued in the middle of the sixth round a month ago.

First, the Dolphins have re-tooled their offensive unit, adding the likes of Jordan Cameron, Kenny Stills, and promising rookie, DeVante Parker. These additions could take a chunk out of his overall team target share, which stood at 23.5% last season.

That target share is where most of Landry’s appeal comes from, particularly in PPR leagues. And while our projections do bump up Landry to WR30 in PPR leagues, he’s still being overvalued even factoring that in.

Why? Because while he boasted the third best catch rate (75%) among receivers with 100-plus targets last season, he also managed to post the 43rd best Reception Success Rate (76.19%) among the 47 qualifying receivers meeting this criteria.

This means that Landry was catching a lot of short-target passes, and relative to other highly-targeted receivers, not doing as much after the catch to contribute positively to the team’s NEP.

Camp-speak about Landry’s role expanding has drafters pulling the trigger on him too early. If you can get him in the seventh or eighth round, fine. But you very likely won’t. So if you’re thinking about drafting him at his current ADP, I implore you to resist the urge.

Alternatives:

Jeremy Maclin: ADP Positional Rank (22), numberFire Positional Rank (20)
DeSean Jackson: ADP Positional Rank (30), numberFire Positional Rank (13)